Double or Nothing on Trumpocalypse?

The Black Flag Cafe is the place travelers come to share stories and advice. Moderated by Robert Young Pelton the author of The World's Most Dangerous Places.

Moderator: coldharvest

Double or Nothing on Trumpocalypse?

Postby ROB » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:36 pm

Who’s doubling down?

Most places are giving him a Roughy 10% chance.

Which seems way off so probably a good time to get some $ odds.
User avatar
ROB
BFCus Regularus
 
Posts: 5420
Joined: Thu Mar 25, 2004 3:49 am

Re: Double or Nothing on Trumpocalypse?

Postby Kurt » Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:41 pm

ROB wrote:Who’s doubling down?

Most places are giving him a Roughy 10% chance.

Which seems way off so probably a good time to get some $ odds.


Remember that one big factor with using logic to determine how the vote will go is that a factor is Americans and their ability to grasp reality.

Factor that in and Trump's odds increase.

Another factor is that Biden might actually start talking more. American reality is selective. People accepted reality that Hillary Clinton did not speak for them in 2016 because she ended up talking alot, and often while being recorded. So for a brief moment Americans shook off their belief that everyone but Lee Harvey Oswald shot JFK, the power of "Negative Energy" to cause illness and the belief that eating sugar filled food with the word "Diet" in front of it would lead to weight loss and said "Hey, this woman is running for the sake of banks and financial globalization....screw that I am voting for the weirdo who says he is against those things."

Biden will eventually serve his own foot to himself with mustard and ketchup. Add another 10%.

My election math is as following:

Realistic campaign environment, meaning a campaign that advocates killing opponents while accidentally killing allies with a disease they do not believe in = 10% chance.

Dipshits who vote. +15%
Biden Bidening + 10%

I give Trump a 35% chance for a second term.

I give him a 100% chance of claiming fraud if he wins or loses.
User avatar
Kurt
In Manus Manus
 
Posts: 20133
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 6:29 am
Location: New York City

Re: Double or Nothing on Trumpocalypse?

Postby Alphabet » Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:55 pm

Meh. I been in rooms, without "being there" where 2 guys who just got done screaming at each other on tv, are enjoying a nice taxpayer funded meal together. When I was young, I fell for the theater. A lot. Now? Nope.

Trump might win. Biden might win. Not much will change either way. That's my prediction.
It could be raining pussy, and troops will complain and blame leadership for not providing an equal ration of ass.
Alphabet
BFCus Regularus
 
Posts: 141
Joined: Sat Jul 11, 2020 12:48 am

Re: Double or Nothing on Trumpocalypse?

Postby snaark » Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:14 pm

Alphabet wrote:Trump might win. Biden might win. Not much will change either way. That's my prediction.


Maybe for you nothing will change. Fortunately there's only one of you.

I'd say Biden has better odds than Hillary ever did, owing to (i) being associated with Obama, (ii) having a penis and (iii) not seeming completely disingenuous, but still a lot can happen.

I'll be interested to see what "October surprise" the Trumpites can pull off. More important is what they will do to dispute the results. And what impact the pandemic will have - which side is more likely to get out and vote?
User avatar
snaark
BFCus Regularus
 
Posts: 1880
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:43 am
Location: Germany

Re: Double or Nothing on Trumpocalypse?

Postby Alphabet » Sat Aug 01, 2020 5:49 pm

snaark wrote:
Alphabet wrote:Trump might win. Biden might win. Not much will change either way. That's my prediction.


Maybe for you nothing will change. Fortunately there's only one of you.

I'd say Biden has better odds than Hillary ever did, owing to (i) being associated with Obama, (ii) having a penis and (iii) not seeming completely disingenuous, but still a lot can happen.

I'll be interested to see what "October surprise" the Trumpites can pull off. More important is what they will do to dispute the results. And what impact the pandemic will have - which side is more likely to get out and vote?



I guess I have to spell it out for you. IE: my not much will change comment. Politicians promise the moon during campaigns. They deliver maybe 1/3 in reality.

If you think Biden, who is literally at Reagan level dementia, is a qualified candidate, ok. The backroom dealings in D.C. will cancel his groping of little girls and confusion over what year it is. Same goes for Trump. If he wins again, we'll get some more Twatter postings and stuff, but that'll be it.

I think you aren't really up to par on how American politics actually works.

You remind of the anti Putin crowd. While you actually have valid points against Putin having lifetime power, you don't bat an eye at Merkel, who is on her 4th cabinet. I guess term limits only apply to politicians you disagree with.

FYI.....Hillary was the sure horse right up until election day. We all know how that went down, don't we?
It could be raining pussy, and troops will complain and blame leadership for not providing an equal ration of ass.
Alphabet
BFCus Regularus
 
Posts: 141
Joined: Sat Jul 11, 2020 12:48 am

Re: Double or Nothing on Trumpocalypse?

Postby snaark » Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:53 pm

Alphabet wrote:Politicians promise the moon during campaigns. They deliver maybe 1/3 in reality.


You think 1/3? I'd say it's a good deal less. But that 1/3 can really matter. In the case of Trump, it matters a great deal.
User avatar
snaark
BFCus Regularus
 
Posts: 1880
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:43 am
Location: Germany

Re: Double or Nothing on Trumpocalypse?

Postby Alphabet » Sun Aug 02, 2020 12:07 am

snaark wrote:
Alphabet wrote:Politicians promise the moon during campaigns. They deliver maybe 1/3 in reality.


You think 1/3? I'd say it's a good deal less. But that 1/3 can really matter. In the case of Trump, it matters a great deal.



K...I guess you're the leftist version of the Obama rape camp dude who used to post here.
It could be raining pussy, and troops will complain and blame leadership for not providing an equal ration of ass.
Alphabet
BFCus Regularus
 
Posts: 141
Joined: Sat Jul 11, 2020 12:48 am

Re: Double or Nothing on Trumpocalypse?

Postby ROB » Sun Aug 02, 2020 4:06 am

Germany has term limits?
User avatar
ROB
BFCus Regularus
 
Posts: 5420
Joined: Thu Mar 25, 2004 3:49 am

Re: Double or Nothing on Trumpocalypse?

Postby snaark » Sun Aug 02, 2020 5:06 am

It sure does! Merkel also rigs elections, suppresses the opposition and changes the constitution so she can stay in power indefinitely.
User avatar
snaark
BFCus Regularus
 
Posts: 1880
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:43 am
Location: Germany

Re: Double or Nothing on Trumpocalypse?

Postby MJK » Sun Aug 02, 2020 5:42 am

Mail in ballots will make possible epic levels of voter fraud. The dead will have to do even less to cast their vote(s) than in a normal election year. No rising from the crypt; just lick a stamp. Being 6 feet under qualifies as social distancing I presume.

Somebody snapped a photo of Joe's talking points in his hand which included blowing much smoke up Kammala Harris' ass. Target Liberty paints her as more criminal crony capitalist than socialist so there's that....

I think that Trump is getting four more, on the up and up or otherwise. If not, I give Joe 6 months max before his own party is 'forced' to Article 25 his caboose. Or maybe he will just walk into the tail rotor on Marine One.
User avatar
MJK
BFCus Regularus
 
Posts: 1432
Joined: Thu Mar 25, 2004 2:59 am
Location: Fairbanks

Re: Double or Nothing on Trumpocalypse?

Postby snaark » Sun Aug 02, 2020 4:49 pm

MJK wrote:Mail in ballots will make possible epic levels of voter fraud. The dead will have to do even less to cast their vote(s) than in a normal election year. No rising from the crypt; just lick a stamp. Being 6 feet under qualifies as social distancing I presume.


How exactly does one rig an election with mail in ballots?
User avatar
snaark
BFCus Regularus
 
Posts: 1880
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:43 am
Location: Germany

Re: Double or Nothing on Trumpocalypse?

Postby Alphabet » Sun Aug 02, 2020 5:08 pm

snaark wrote:
MJK wrote:Mail in ballots will make possible epic levels of voter fraud. The dead will have to do even less to cast their vote(s) than in a normal election year. No rising from the crypt; just lick a stamp. Being 6 feet under qualifies as social distancing I presume.


How exactly does one rig an election with mail in ballots?



Not taking a side here, but mail fraud is extremely fucking easy in the U.S.
It could be raining pussy, and troops will complain and blame leadership for not providing an equal ration of ass.
Alphabet
BFCus Regularus
 
Posts: 141
Joined: Sat Jul 11, 2020 12:48 am

Re: Double or Nothing on Trumpocalypse?

Postby MJK » Sun Aug 02, 2020 5:13 pm

I need to point out that if the actual presence of a voter is not required it becomes easier to co-opt or steal that person's vote? If you have to show up in person, one phony voter is needed for each stolen vote. One person, however can fill out a whole packing crate full of mail in ballots if properly inspired and caffeinated. But here is some reading that you will probably dismiss without looking at.....

https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2019/03/18/why_ballot_fraud_is_as_big_texas_despite_local_enforcers.html

Edit- Morning, Mr. Alphabet. I also found a bit on Republican voter fraud in Texas but gotta run, the firewood racket waits for no man. Always good to see your input here.
User avatar
MJK
BFCus Regularus
 
Posts: 1432
Joined: Thu Mar 25, 2004 2:59 am
Location: Fairbanks

Re: Double or Nothing on Trumpocalypse?

Postby snaark » Sun Aug 02, 2020 6:17 pm

Alphabet wrote:
snaark wrote:
MJK wrote:Mail in ballots will make possible epic levels of voter fraud. The dead will have to do even less to cast their vote(s) than in a normal election year. No rising from the crypt; just lick a stamp. Being 6 feet under qualifies as social distancing I presume.


How exactly does one rig an election with mail in ballots?



Not taking a side here, but mail fraud is extremely fucking easy in the U.S.


But why then is it extremely fucking uncommon?

https://www.nytimes.com/article/mail-in-voting-explained.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article
User avatar
snaark
BFCus Regularus
 
Posts: 1880
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:43 am
Location: Germany

Re: Double or Nothing on Trumpocalypse?

Postby snaark » Sun Aug 02, 2020 6:20 pm

MJK wrote:I need to point out that if the actual presence of a voter is not required it becomes easier to co-opt or steal that person's vote? If you have to show up in person, one phony voter is needed for each stolen vote. One person, however can fill out a whole packing crate full of mail in ballots if properly inspired and caffeinated. But here is some reading that you will probably dismiss without looking at.....

https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2019/03/18/why_ballot_fraud_is_as_big_texas_despite_local_enforcers.html

Edit- Morning, Mr. Alphabet. I also found a bit on Republican voter fraud in Texas but gotta run, the firewood racket waits for no man. Always good to see your input here.


You're right, I completely dismissed it without looking at it.

You have to register to vote by mail in order to receive a ballot, right? So how exactly are you going to get that crate full of ballot papers?
User avatar
snaark
BFCus Regularus
 
Posts: 1880
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:43 am
Location: Germany

Next

Return to Black Flag Cafe

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests