Anyone know anything about agriculture?

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Anyone know anything about agriculture?

Postby vagabond » Fri Aug 05, 2022 6:27 pm

Thinking about this today after coming across this article about parts of France having issues with drinking water. Seems that that headline in these years of the climate emergency really flexing has become more and more common. Couple that with what everyone is learning about the importance of Ukrainian ag exports and are we looking at a year or two (longer?) of food security issues beyond even the developing world? I'm not too worried about the US but seems like there's going to be a lot of pressure on people and maybe some nasty surprises out there.

As we've seen in the past, fuck with food, and people get shooty.
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Re: Anyone know anything about agriculture?

Postby Tarkan » Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:57 am

Read Peter Zeihan's latest, "The End of the World Is Just the Beginning"

Russia and Belorussia, together, constitute either the world's largest exporter of fertilizer (potash) or the world's largest exporter of the raw materials that go into making fertilizer (natural gas for urea/nitrogen based fertilizers).

Russia and China cut off exports of fertilizer before the whole Ukraine thing kicked off.

Europe is heavily dependent on Russian potash and natural gas for their fertilizer. Guess what got impacted by the Ukraine invasion?

Europe reportedly used about half the normal amount of fertilizer this year. In Africa, they used much less. Takes more than one harvest for soil fertility levels to go to zero, but now that it's August, we should be able to see what the fall harvest is beginning to look like.

As of yet the futures haven't started spiking noticeably, so it might be premature to start scoping out the neighbors for their long pig potential.
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Re: Anyone know anything about agriculture?

Postby snaark » Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:34 pm

Tarkan wrote:Russia and China cut off exports of fertilizer before the whole Ukraine thing kicked off.


No they fucking didn't. Jesus it's so easy to fact check the bullshit you post here.
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Re: Anyone know anything about agriculture?

Postby Tarkan » Sun Aug 07, 2022 3:51 pm

snaark wrote:
Tarkan wrote:Russia and China cut off exports of fertilizer before the whole Ukraine thing kicked off.


No they fucking didn't. Jesus it's so easy to fact check the bullshit you post here.


Yep, here I am just making bullshit up:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... lt-exports

https://seanews.ru/en/2022/04/28/en-rus ... rs-export/

https://www.reuters.com/article/china-f ... SKBN2OQ0KY

https://norgemining.com/2021/10/18/fert ... e-exports/

https://www.fastmarkets.com/chinas-fert ... al-markets

TL/DR: Fuck off, retard. If it's so easy to fact check, then how about you actually fact check. The above took all of 2 minutes, dipshit.
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Re: Anyone know anything about agriculture?

Postby vagabond » Sun Aug 07, 2022 4:32 pm

Will take a look at the Zeihan book. Unfortunately, I think "How to Die in the Anthropocene" and the like may be more relevant.

3 of those 5 articles are from after Ukraine was invaded btw.

I watched the "Woodstock '99" doc on Friday and the day 2 and day 3 scenes were what I imagine we're going to end up with given the same greed, lack of / expensive water, food etc. Except for with far less white bros. This insight may have been brought to you by alcohol.
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Re: Anyone know anything about agriculture?

Postby Tarkan » Sun Aug 07, 2022 6:14 pm

Here’s another article from last year:

https://www.newsweek.com/world-has-new- ... 7440?amp=1

Snaark strikes me as one of those pissant contrarian types that disagrees with anything said by anyone he doesn’t like.

Unfortunately for him (and everyone else), the fertilizer thing isn’t something dreamed up in the fevered imaginations of Q followers. It’s a real thing and food insecurity for a lot of the world is looking like it may be a problem over the next couple of years.

Like I also said though, the grain futures market isn’t panicking yet though so that might be a good sign.

Zeihan goes into quite a lot of detail in his book and on YouTube about the deteriorating global food situation.
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Re: Anyone know anything about agriculture?

Postby snaark » Sun Aug 07, 2022 7:19 pm

Tarkan wrote:
snaark wrote:
Tarkan wrote:Russia and China cut off exports of fertilizer before the whole Ukraine thing kicked off.


No they fucking didn't. Jesus it's so easy to fact check the bullshit you post here.


Yep, here I am just making bullshit up:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... lt-exports

https://seanews.ru/en/2022/04/28/en-rus ... rs-export/

https://www.reuters.com/article/china-f ... SKBN2OQ0KY

https://norgemining.com/2021/10/18/fert ... e-exports/

https://www.fastmarkets.com/chinas-fert ... al-markets

TL/DR: Fuck off, retard. If it's so easy to fact check, then how about you actually fact check. The above took all of 2 minutes, dipshit.


I'm sure in your mind you weren't making this shit up. But you're clearly not very bright, so let me explain.

China and Russia both introduced export QUOTAS for fertilizers.
It actually says exactly that in most of the articles you just posted, which clearly you didn't actually read. A quota means a reduction in the amount exported relative to previous years. It is not the same as CUTTING OFF exports, which implies nothing is imported.

I know it's all very nuanced for someone like you, but the details are actually kinda important. But yeah, I can see how a hysterical conspiracy-theory loving cunt would confuse the two. I mean, that's what hysterical conspiracy theories are built on.
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Re: Anyone know anything about agriculture?

Postby snaark » Sun Aug 07, 2022 7:54 pm

Tarkan wrote:Like I also said though, the grain futures market isn’t panicking yet though so that might be a good sign.


Yup, that is a good sign. Good thing all those analysts don't know what you know.
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Re: Anyone know anything about agriculture?

Postby Tarkan » Sun Aug 07, 2022 9:05 pm

uote="snaark"]
Tarkan wrote:Like I also said though, the grain futures market isn’t panicking yet though so that might be a good sign.


Yup, that is a good sign. Good thing all those analysts don't know what you know.[/quote]

You really are a congenitally flawed dumb fuck aren’t you?

I used the word “cut off”.

Cut off synonyms include “discontinue”, “break off”, “suspend”, “stop”, and “end”.

From the Newsweek article:
“Last July, China's National Development and Reform Commission stopped major companies from exporting fertilizer.”

Next sentence:
“In September, Beijing imposed a prohibition on exports of phosphates”

From https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/ ... l-farmers/

“ Russia halts nitrogen, phosphate fertilizer exports to support local farmers”

Even your pigeon brain can probably make the inferential leap that “halts” and “stopped” and “imposed a prohibition” on exports is semantically equivalent to “cut off”.

If you think this is some conspiracy theory, cool, then short the fucking grain futures and prove how wrong I am when you are jumping in your McScrooge pool full of gold coins after you prove me wrong. That is, if you can scrape up two nickels to run together, which might be problematic given how fucking stupid you are.

By all means post some updated China and Russia fertilizer numbers to prove me wrong. But let me guess, you don’t care enough to look up the data…

Oh and on those analysts - the same data I’m posting is coming from commodities newsletters as well, and a lot of people a lot closet to ag production than you or me are expressing concerns, but hey whatever, there’s no other river like denial.
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Re: Anyone know anything about agriculture?

Postby Kurt » Mon Aug 08, 2022 1:48 am

China's exports have shrunk, but not ended.

https://www.reuters.com/article/china-f ... SKBN2OQ0KY

and right after Ukraine Sanctions Russia has halted exports.

https://www.reuters.com/business/sancti ... 022-03-23/

China does produce more Fertilizer than India, Russia and the USA combined.

https://www.nationmaster.com/nmx/rankin ... production

Man, the Great Leap Forward...though it's main immediate product was the death of 50 million people, it's secondary effect was a massive jump in fertilizer production.

https://www.nationmaster.com/nmx/timese ... production

Still not as high as 2008 yet but Urea...My god that is up there.

https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/impacts-a ... zer-market

https://www.nationmaster.com/nmx/rankin ... production

Time to invest in a Port-A-Potty business and start selling that sweet, stinky gold.

To me this is a price spike but not apocalyptic. Tons of producers = The means to increase capacity. China's reduction of exports seems to be a means of controlling prices at home.

The big Chinese producers of Fertilizer are SInofert and Sinochem. Sinochem is state owned and controls 53% of Sinofert. 22% is owned by Canadian company called Potash Corp. and 25% is traded as stock (bet that shot up in price)

Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co Ltd is the number 3 producer and number 1 producer of Urea based fertilizer. They are apparently 100% traded on stock markets, however with Chinese companies one tends to find their officers are also in the Military or in the Communist party, that seems to be the unofficial standard for large privately owned / publicly traded companies to exist, but I don't have time to research the main players.

Wengfu Group seems to be the ambitious one. Number 4 in Fertilizer production and apparently have been eyeing expansion globally. Their chairman is He Guangliang, Deputy of the 13th People's congress. They have a patented and secret phosphorus extraction method.
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201903/ ... ee5d9.html

Wengfu is one of the world's most profitable companies by percentage. (never heard of them until today)

5 is China XLX, which became so successful that in 2003 they sold themselves to the Chinese government.

My guess is the Government owned places are selling in China ownly and the two private companies are selling overseas. Keep costs down at home while raising prices abroad. Pretty good mercantilism strategy. Unlikely to destroy the world.
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Re: Anyone know anything about agriculture?

Postby snaark » Mon Aug 08, 2022 6:59 am

China fertilizer exports from the Reuters article Tarkan posted himself:

Image
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Postby el3so » Mon Aug 08, 2022 9:42 am

Kurt wrote: 22% is owned by Canadian company called Potash Corp. and 25% is traded as stock (bet that shot up in price)
They're called Nutrien and it did, for a while. Dunno about manure, whole bunch of poor foreigners 'll starve before I am affected, but German industry is and will continue feeling the pinch of the gas reduction.
Interesting stuff, never expected to learn about manufacturing processes while making a quick buck, but here we are.
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Re: Anyone know anything about agriculture?

Postby Michael » Mon Aug 08, 2022 4:22 pm

Having become an avid follower of G-Zero Media, I suggest their current thread called "Hunger Pains"...

https://www.gzeromedia.com/hunger-pains ... ood-crisis
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Re: Anyone know anything about agriculture?

Postby Tarkan » Mon Aug 08, 2022 6:39 pm

snaark wrote:China fertilizer exports from the Reuters article Tarkan posted himself:

Image


Well, you really owned me, let me tell you.

May 2022, less than 200,000 tons exported vs almost 1.2 million tons exported the prior year's May.

So, yes, you are technically correct that they haven't completely eliminated all phosphate / potash exports, but it's getting pretty damn close.
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Re: Anyone know anything about agriculture?

Postby Tarkan » Mon Aug 08, 2022 6:43 pm

Kurt wrote:China's exports have shrunk, but not ended.


Could be them just working through existing contract deliveries. Time will tell. This is one I definitely hope I'm wrong on and snaark is right.
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