Anyone know anything about agriculture?

[vagabond]

22% is owned by Canadian company called Potash Corp. and 25% is traded as stock (bet that shot up in price)

They're called Nutrien and it did, for a while. Dunno about manure, whole bunch of poor foreigners 'll starve before I am affected, but German industry is and will continue feeling the pinch of the gas reduction.
Interesting stuff, never expected to learn about manufacturing processes while making a quick buck, but here we are.

I read some Brits talking about this but I don't quite understand their situation. It seems there's a cap on the max cost of gas and I guess the regulators will bump it up sometime in the next month or two? I guess Germany switching off the nuclear plants early wasn't a good idea. Winter will be interesting. US is trying to ship liquefied gas over.

[vagabond]

Having become an avid follower of G-Zero Media, I suggest their current thread called "Hunger Pains"...

https://www.gzeromedia.com/hunger-pains ... ood-crisis

Thanks, will check it out.

[Tarkan]

If anyone is still worried about this, Karen Braun is good to follow on twitter:

https://twitter.com/kannbwx

She provides pretty continuous updates on agriculture yields around the world.

"South Africa's #corn harvest is seen 8% smaller than last year with 7.64mmt of white maize and 7.37mmt of yellow. South Africa can export near 20% of its corn crop in good years. Top buyers last year: Japan, Taiwan, S Korea, Vietnam, Botswana."


"U.S. export sales data will be unavailable until further notice, poor timing as the market tries to track increasing sales of soybeans to China, e.g. Was this avoidable? I know USDA was trying to update the system, but why disable the old system til you know the new one works?"


Across the board, there seems to be a 5-10% decline in yields in most areas (with some areas in the US having an increase in yields). Not yet a food apocalypse, but there is definitely going to be some belt tightening.

[vagabond]

We should all be rather concerned. Look at the return of terrible flooding in Pakistan. How are they supposed 220 million people? Same for India and there still growing 1 billion+, especially when sea level rise in Bangladesh will start pushing those folks to immigrate.

[el3so]

Across the board, there seems to be a 5-10% decline in yields in most areas (with some areas in the US having an increase in yields). Not yet a food apocalypse, but there is definitely going to be some belt tightening.

"For seven years there will be plenty of food in Egypt. But then there will be seven years of hunger." After that it devolves into some socialist nonsense on how careful planning and husbandry of resources by a benevolent ruler could avoid human suffering due to, well, circumstances.

I guess Germany switching off the nuclear plants early wasn't a good idea. Winter will be interesting.

Gas is needed for very many other things than generating electricity. But it definitely didn't help. Germany has reserves for at least 2 months, we have shy of 4 days' worth. All of this is online. People might start envying that dog in Tark's avatar.

US is trying to ship liquefied gas over.

OMG bless their heart

edit: OT being an optimist, maybe this will have angry citizens buying fertilizer for the right reasons.

[Tarkan]

Good news:

Karen Braun
@kannbwx
·
2h
Preliminary data suggests #Brazil in August may have shipped an all-time record #corn volume for any month at 7.55 mmt (~300 mbu). Again, that number may come down after the data is cleaned, but strong exports would be expected coming off a record harvest.

Bad news:

Karen Braun
@kannbwx
·
8h
Ukraine's agrarian council says #wheat plantings for the 2023 harvest could fall 30-40% due to lack of funding and crop won't exceed 15 mmt. That compares with 19 mmt in 2022 and 32.2 mmt in 2021. Ukraine's ag minister had said plantings at least -20% YOY. Sowing starts soon.

More bad news:


Karen Braun
@kannbwx
·
8h
#Ukraine's grain exports in August were 60% lower than last August.

[Tarkan]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/food-suppl ... 1663645212

Food Supply Stays Tight as Disappointing U.S. Harvest Adds to Global Challenges