Trump getting arrested?

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Trump getting arrested?

Postby Kurt » Mon Aug 15, 2022 1:46 am

Thinking it is closer to happening now than it ever was before but I am a firm believer in the Law of Increasing Returns....Meaning what you have; you will get more of. And Trump has been breaking the Law for decades now, be it housing discrimination, fraud, and assault and battery (not himself but his security guy) and he has always gotten away with either fines or warnings or running out the statute of limitations. So I think that trend is likely to continue because I think past results are indicative of future results.

But if it doesn't, what happens then? I know some people are gonna lose their shit and threaten all kinds of Civil War, But what are the scenarios?

I think a few here and there are gonna go on killing sprees, but we already have that in the US and sadly any uptick will hardly be noticed. But when a rebellion starts there is a dumb stage when it initially happens and then it either fizzles or people learn from the idiots and get smarter.

I was thinking about that in AZ when a an armed protester outside the FBI office bragged about how heavy his vest was because he had so much ammo. I imagined the 15 year old kid who mugged me in Ounaminthe Haiti in 2001 (one of Guy Phillipe's soldiers before people knew about Guy Philipe), all he had was a Barretta M9 in his knock off FUBU shorts and a Bart Simpson T-Shirt that said "Don't Have A Cow Man" and I am pretty sure the kid could have killed the "battle rattle" guy and taken his shit.

But they all went home by noon anyway. so no danger.

But if a group like that decided to move, they would have all been killed, but who, if anyone, would take their place?
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Re: Trump getting arrested?

Postby seektravelinfo » Mon Aug 15, 2022 4:55 am

If he is arrested his voters will turn on him so as to save face. His diehard MAGA base will grandstand and grind their teeth but effect no meaningful change. Schoastic terrorism will be a given. Proud Boys, INCELS, Oath-Keepers, assorted militias and all those LARP people will continue to menace and flex without achieving their goals.

Probably a lot of those described above will get monkey pox, anti-vaxx as they are, so get used to the sight of oozing pustules. They’ll insist that they are sacrificing much to achieve herd immunity and expect a medal or something. The pus from their pox will accessorize their stupid tattoos.

Have you gotten that vaxx, Kurt? NYC seems to be the only place that’s at least trying to get serious with this.
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Re: Trump getting arrested?

Postby Kurt » Mon Aug 15, 2022 5:15 am

seektravelinfo wrote:If he is arrested his voters will turn on him so as to save face. His diehard MAGA base will grandstand and grind their teeth but effect no meaningful change. Schoastic terrorism will be a given. Proud Boys, INCELS, Oath-Keepers, assorted militias and all those LARP people will continue to menace and flex without achieving their goals.

Probably a lot of those described above will get monkey pox, anti-vaxx as they are, so get used to the sight of oozing pustules. They’ll insist that they are sacrificing much to achieve herd immunity and expect a medal or something. The pus from their pox will accessorize their stupid tattoos.

Have you gotten that vaxx, Kurt? NYC seems to be the only place that’s at least trying to get serious with this.


No. I am trying.

When I was 32 I got chicken pox. Worst experience of my life. 2 weeks without sleep (i get told "you must have slept but not realized it" I did not sleep) a visit to the ER counted pox per inch andestimated I had 4000+ blisters. I did not eat, I was in pain that is almost impossible to describe. I had blisters everywhere. Throat, eyes, urethra, vas deferens, butthole, prostate, soles of my feet.
When I have nightmares they are about chicken pox. I cannot have kids now.
Anyway I really want this vax. I also believe in following guidelines but I have been really tempted to claim to get dude pussy often in order to get it but I am waiting my legit turn.
People said it is pure pain. Dont wanna go through that again.
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Re: Trump getting arrested?

Postby vagabond » Mon Aug 15, 2022 6:13 am

Kurt wrote:
seektravelinfo wrote:If he is arrested his voters will turn on him so as to save face. His diehard MAGA base will grandstand and grind their teeth but effect no meaningful change. Schoastic terrorism will be a given. Proud Boys, INCELS, Oath-Keepers, assorted militias and all those LARP people will continue to menace and flex without achieving their goals.

Probably a lot of those described above will get monkey pox, anti-vaxx as they are, so get used to the sight of oozing pustules. They’ll insist that they are sacrificing much to achieve herd immunity and expect a medal or something. The pus from their pox will accessorize their stupid tattoos.

Have you gotten that vaxx, Kurt? NYC seems to be the only place that’s at least trying to get serious with this.


No. I am trying.

When I was 32 I got chicken pox. Worst experience of my life. 2 weeks without sleep (i get told "you must have slept but not realized it" I did not sleep) a visit to the ER counted pox per inch andestimated I had 4000+ blisters. I did not eat, I was in pain that is almost impossible to describe. I had blisters everywhere. Throat, eyes, urethra, vas deferens, butthole, prostate, soles of my feet.
When I have nightmares they are about chicken pox. I cannot have kids now.
Anyway I really want this vax. I also believe in following guidelines but I have been really tempted to claim to get dude pussy often in order to get it but I am waiting my legit turn.
People said it is pure pain. Dont wanna go through that again.


I heard some guys at the gym talking getting their vaccines and how hard it is in LA, even for high risk (gay, etc) people. Do both of you feel that this monkeypox thing is at a point that it's really necessary or are you just being cautious due to the horrifying thing you've already gone through? A friend in NYC handwaved both this and the polio stuff as limited to certain communities but it does seem like a lurking danger everywhere.

I also agree with seeks that a lot of the 'supporters' will probably sit on the sidelines and ask others to do the dirty work of getting shot by feds or, unfortunately, keep terrorizing civilians at malls, parades, what have you. I think there are the cultist/true believers and then there are the majority that just don't want to be seen as backing the wrong horse no matter how many ponies it raped.

There's a big question going around of IF this administration has the right evidence of something so bad they can put Donnie and his crew behind bars how that would even work. Real prison? Home arrest w/ no internet access?
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Re: Trump getting arrested?

Postby seektravelinfo » Tue Aug 16, 2022 2:09 am

vagabond wrote:I also agree with seeks that a lot of the 'supporters' will probably sit on the sidelines and ask others to do the dirty work of getting shot by feds or, unfortunately, keep terrorizing civilians at malls, parades, what have you. I think there are the cultist/true believers and then there are the majority that just don't want to be seen as backing the wrong horse no matter how many ponies it raped.

There's a big question going around of IF this administration has the right evidence of something so bad they can put Donnie and his crew behind bars how that would even work. Real prison? Home arrest w/ no internet access?



It’s reported that his passports were taken when they executed the search warrant, but then Trump himself may have started that rumor. What’s to stop him from fleeing anyway, sans passport? He could be granted asylum in Russia, or any country that would have him. Greenland could take him. Didn’t he try to buy it once anyway?

Monkey pox. In my city of Cleveland we had eleven confirmed cases last week. Today it’s 28 confirmed cases. There will be a limited number of vaccines rolled out here, per our Bd of Health, and restricted primarily to men who have sex with men. There seems to be uncertainty about surface or respiratory transmission being a risk, as it’s thought that the virus comes from open lesions and can be spread via towels, bedding or clothing worn by an infected person. Once school starts …. if the kids start catching it we’d best be prepared for this as we are not now.

Back to Trump, another oozing pustule, how bizarre it must be down at Mar A Lago.
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Re: Trump getting arrested?

Postby rickshaw92 » Tue Aug 16, 2022 10:09 am

What happens if The Donald gets nicked?


DeSantis 2024!!!!
Im reallly fuclimg pissed but fespite that I can still hit a tarfet at 1000m plus. mayVRVe bnot tonight but it qint beyond the wit if man. Nowhammy.
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Re: Trump getting arrested?

Postby Tarkan » Wed Aug 17, 2022 12:28 pm

seektravelinfo wrote:If he is arrested his voters will turn on him so as to save face. His diehard MAGA base will grandstand and grind their teeth but effect no meaningful change. Schoastic terrorism will be a given. Proud Boys, INCELS, Oath-Keepers, assorted militias and all those LARP people will continue to menace and flex without achieving their goals.

Probably a lot of those described above will get monkey pox, anti-vaxx as they are, so get used to the sight of oozing pustules. They’ll insist that they are sacrificing much to achieve herd immunity and expect a medal or something. The pus from their pox will accessorize their stupid tattoos.


This reads a lot like a teenage girl's diary entry with the title of "Things I wish for today..."

I'm sure Trump will drop out any day now.
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Re: Trump getting arrested?

Postby Tarkan » Wed Aug 17, 2022 12:31 pm

seektravelinfo wrote:
vagabond wrote:I also agree with seeks that a lot of the 'supporters' will probably sit on the sidelines and ask others to do the dirty work of getting shot by feds or, unfortunately, keep terrorizing civilians at malls, parades, what have you. I think there are the cultist/true believers and then there are the majority that just don't want to be seen as backing the wrong horse no matter how many ponies it raped.

There's a big question going around of IF this administration has the right evidence of something so bad they can put Donnie and his crew behind bars how that would even work. Real prison? Home arrest w/ no internet access?



It’s reported that his passports were taken when they executed the search warrant, but then Trump himself may have started that rumor. What’s to stop him from fleeing anyway, sans passport? He could be granted asylum in Russia, or any country that would have him. Greenland could take him. Didn’t he try to buy it once anyway?


The FBI did (illegally) seize 3 of his passports. 2 were expired, and 1 is the diplomatic passport he gets as President. It was an illegal seizure because the passports were not part of the search warrant nor can they be alleged to be evidence of criminal activity identified incidental to the search warrant, and contrary to your wishes, Trump is not actually barred from leaving the country at the moment. Thus, the passports are being returned.
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Re: Trump getting arrested?

Postby Tarkan » Wed Aug 17, 2022 12:55 pm

The problem with arresting Trump is that it is, like impeachment, more of a political act than a criminal justice act, and factional DOJ and FBI actions with regards to Trump since 2016 have been predicated on perjury, bullshit “intel” dossiers, illegal leaks when it suits the DOJ, secrecy when it hides malfeasance, and political score settling. It makes it really hard for the set of people who don’t hate Trump to believe that THIS TIME, no, really, THIS TIME the DOJ and FBI have pure motives and are just going where the evidence takes them.

Some of the stuff I’ve read in regards to the “classified nuclear secrets” taken had to do with the Obama-Iran nuclear deal, and the other boxes were dealing with the FISA op against the Trump campaign and Trump admin. In other words, stuff that would be damaging to the former Obama admin and the current Biden admin (Biden was involved in approving Crossfire Hurricane). Given the history of the last 7 years, I find this theory a little more credible than the idea that Trump was selling the W87 warhead design to the Saudis.

It will be interesting to see if Garland releases the affidavit and how redacted it ends up being.

Do I think Trump has broken the law? Almost certainly. The problem for the Democrats is likely that Trump’s criminality is no worse than the corruption that is endemic in Washington. Do you really think that Hunter Biden was gettint 500k a year board positions to Ukraine energy companies and starting multi-billion dollar hedge funds with Chinese money because of his good looks and professional qualifications? There are text messages and emails FROM Hunter saying he had to give his dad a 10% cut. He was selling access to his dad and his dad was profiting from it. The entire top of both parties is full of grifters enriching themselves at the American people’s expense. Which isn’t to say the guilty shouldn’t be punished but I think it’s telling that the Democrats haven’t gone after garden variety corruption- which they could probably make a case for - and instead jinned up bullshit national security and espionage allegations.
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Re: Trump getting arrested?

Postby Kurt » Wed Aug 17, 2022 1:06 pm

Tarkan wrote:
seektravelinfo wrote:
vagabond wrote:I also agree with seeks that a lot of the 'supporters' will probably sit on the sidelines and ask others to do the dirty work of getting shot by feds or, unfortunately, keep terrorizing civilians at malls, parades, what have you. I think there are the cultist/true believers and then there are the majority that just don't want to be seen as backing the wrong horse no matter how many ponies it raped.

There's a big question going around of IF this administration has the right evidence of something so bad they can put Donnie and his crew behind bars how that would even work. Real prison? Home arrest w/ no internet access?



It’s reported that his passports were taken when they executed the search warrant, but then Trump himself may have started that rumor. What’s to stop him from fleeing anyway, sans passport? He could be granted asylum in Russia, or any country that would have him. Greenland could take him. Didn’t he try to buy it once anyway?


The FBI did (illegally) seize 3 of his passports. 2 were expired, and 1 is the diplomatic passport he gets as President. It was an illegal seizure because the passports were not part of the search warrant nor can they be alleged to be evidence of criminal activity identified incidental to the search warrant, and contrary to your wishes, Trump is not actually barred from leaving the country at the moment. Thus, the passports are being returned.


If you have ever worked for some place where a search warrant is executed you would know this stuff happens all the time.

So they have a warrant to take certain things. Cops do not know many of these things, especially relating to documents. The AG or whomever has authority will have document checkers go over documents one by one. When they find something not covered in the warrant they return it.

Taking passports is not illegal. Keeping his passports would be illegal.

Picture this: When I would take hard drives as forensic evidence for a Law firm I was allowed to take the whole computer, even if the subpoena / Warrant was only for documents or images relating to the matter. Then an image is taken and the data reviewed. Data not relevant to the matter is removed, the laptop returned as it was before.

Trump's matter is "classified material" They did not even know what the material was, but had to have people with clearance review the contents of boxes. The fact his passports were returned so quickly shows they have a lot of people reviewing these. Typically it is ASAP (with "Possible" often meaning 6 months) For practical reasons " Box of documents" is equivalent to a hard drive on a laptop.

Its weird that the USA is known for 3 things:

1. Guns.
2. Lawsuits
3. Massive Incarceration rates.

And yet more US Citizens know how and when you can shoot a person and have it be legal but not have a fucking clue about Legal discovery processes.
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Re: Trump getting arrested?

Postby Tarkan » Wed Aug 17, 2022 2:01 pm

Kurt wrote:
Tarkan wrote:
seektravelinfo wrote:
vagabond wrote:I also agree with seeks that a lot of the 'supporters' will probably sit on the sidelines and ask others to do the dirty work of getting shot by feds or, unfortunately, keep terrorizing civilians at malls, parades, what have you. I think there are the cultist/true believers and then there are the majority that just don't want to be seen as backing the wrong horse no matter how many ponies it raped.

There's a big question going around of IF this administration has the right evidence of something so bad they can put Donnie and his crew behind bars how that would even work. Real prison? Home arrest w/ no internet access?



It’s reported that his passports were taken when they executed the search warrant, but then Trump himself may have started that rumor. What’s to stop him from fleeing anyway, sans passport? He could be granted asylum in Russia, or any country that would have him. Greenland could take him. Didn’t he try to buy it once anyway?


The FBI did (illegally) seize 3 of his passports. 2 were expired, and 1 is the diplomatic passport he gets as President. It was an illegal seizure because the passports were not part of the search warrant nor can they be alleged to be evidence of criminal activity identified incidental to the search warrant, and contrary to your wishes, Trump is not actually barred from leaving the country at the moment. Thus, the passports are being returned.


If you have ever worked for some place where a search warrant is executed you would know this stuff happens all the time.

So they have a warrant to take certain things. Cops do not know many of these things, especially relating to documents. The AG or whomever has authority will have document checkers go over documents one by one. When they find something not covered in the warrant they return it.

Taking passports is not illegal. Keeping his passports would be illegal.

Picture this: When I would take hard drives as forensic evidence for a Law firm I was allowed to take the whole computer, even if the subpoena / Warrant was only for documents or images relating to the matter. Then an image is taken and the data reviewed. Data not relevant to the matter is removed, the laptop returned as it was before.

Trump's matter is "classified material" They did not even know what the material was, but had to have people with clearance review the contents of boxes. The fact his passports were returned so quickly shows they have a lot of people reviewing these. Typically it is ASAP (with "Possible" often meaning 6 months) For practical reasons " Box of documents" is equivalent to a hard drive on a laptop.

Its weird that the USA is known for 3 things:

1. Guns.
2. Lawsuits
3. Massive Incarceration rates.

And yet more US Citizens know how and when you can shoot a person and have it be legal but not have a fucking clue about Legal discovery processes.


"Illegally" here is a term of art. They were not authorized to pull passports. The passports were stored in a safe that they opened, not stuffed in between folders in box A21. They were clearly passports and not "classified material". Thus, factually an illegal seizure, but not a criminal seizure.

But given the expansive nature of the seizure of potential "evidence", it's interesting to contrast this with the treatment of Hillary and her email server (no FBI raids, no seizure of evidence, blanket immunity given to the entire Hillary staff, immunity not revoked when it was learned that not all evidence was turned over, allowing de facto conspirators to destroy evidence in advance of FBI investigators reviewing, bullshit delaying tactics like printing out the emails instead of handing over the email server)...which again highlights the fact that this is intensely political, and the alleged criminality is a smokescreen for a political hit job.
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Re: Trump getting arrested?

Postby vagabond » Wed Aug 17, 2022 4:55 pm

Think I'll be going with Kurt and pretty much every current and former lawyer/nat sec/etc expert that has weighed in on this on Twitter and elsewhere.

seeks - re: monkeypox - Thanks for the info.

Seems we're just repeating the earlier 20th century, aren't we? Massive epidemics, authoritarianism, land wars in Eastern Europe. And a climate crisis on top of all this. Good times.
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Re: Trump getting arrested?

Postby snaark » Wed Aug 17, 2022 5:14 pm

I'm starting to think that Trump getting arrested is a bit like nuclear fusion. The mar-a-lago raid is a bit different, but I still don't know how to interpret it. I suspect there are 2 possibilities:

- Merrick Garland thinks its an easy one to prosecute, as opposed to the January 6th thing. In other words, stealing official Whitehouse porn will be Trumps "wire fraud".

- There was so much pressure on Garland to do "something" that he picked the low hanging fruit.

In any case I'm not going to hold my breath to see Trump in the dock, as much as I'd like to see that.
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Re: Trump getting arrested?

Postby Kurt » Wed Aug 17, 2022 7:54 pm

Tarkan wrote:
"Illegally" here is a term of art. They were not authorized to pull passports. The passports were stored in a safe that they opened, not stuffed in between folders in box A21. They were clearly passports and not "classified material". Thus, factually an illegal seizure, but not a criminal seizure.

But given the expansive nature of the seizure of potential "evidence", it's interesting to contrast this with the treatment of Hillary and her email server (no FBI raids, no seizure of evidence, blanket immunity given to the entire Hillary staff, immunity not revoked when it was learned that not all evidence was turned over, allowing de facto conspirators to destroy evidence in advance of FBI investigators reviewing, bullshit delaying tactics like printing out the emails instead of handing over the email server)...which again highlights the fact that this is intensely political, and the alleged criminality is a smokescreen for a political hit job.


Have you ever worked at a place where documents are taken? You must have. They bring hand trucks for file cabinets because they are going to precisely determine what files to keep and which to return.

So with Trump it may have been "Documents in Safe" or even "Contents of Safe" or sometimes even "Safe". Later, if there is a court case Trumps lawyers will go through and try to get as much taken stuff as possible as inadmissible. In fact as Trump's lawyers would have probably wanted, if they would have kept stuff they were not supposed to keep AND tried to use it as evidence in a trial then they could have had more scrutiny with other documents.

Its weird to see the so-called "Law and Order" crowd so obtuse about the actual process of Law and Order. Law and Order is mostly paperwork and CoC documents. But I suppose if "my guy" was looking more and more like a Russian / Saudi / UAE asset every day I would be grasping as well.
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Re: Trump getting arrested?

Postby Tarkan » Wed Aug 17, 2022 9:08 pm

Kurt wrote:
Tarkan wrote:
"Illegally" here is a term of art. They were not authorized to pull passports. The passports were stored in a safe that they opened, not stuffed in between folders in box A21. They were clearly passports and not "classified material". Thus, factually an illegal seizure, but not a criminal seizure.

But given the expansive nature of the seizure of potential "evidence", it's interesting to contrast this with the treatment of Hillary and her email server (no FBI raids, no seizure of evidence, blanket immunity given to the entire Hillary staff, immunity not revoked when it was learned that not all evidence was turned over, allowing de facto conspirators to destroy evidence in advance of FBI investigators reviewing, bullshit delaying tactics like printing out the emails instead of handing over the email server)...which again highlights the fact that this is intensely political, and the alleged criminality is a smokescreen for a political hit job.


Have you ever worked at a place where documents are taken? You must have. They bring hand trucks for file cabinets because they are going to precisely determine what files to keep and which to return.

So with Trump it may have been "Documents in Safe" or even "Contents of Safe" or sometimes even "Safe". Later, if there is a court case Trumps lawyers will go through and try to get as much taken stuff as possible as inadmissible. In fact as Trump's lawyers would have probably wanted, if they would have kept stuff they were not supposed to keep AND tried to use it as evidence in a trial then they could have had more scrutiny with other documents.

Its weird to see the so-called "Law and Order" crowd so obtuse about the actual process of Law and Order. Law and Order is mostly paperwork and CoC documents. But I suppose if "my guy" was looking more and more like a Russian / Saudi / UAE asset every day I would be grasping as well.


Honestly, I'm not horribly spun up over the FBI taking back the wrong docs, any more than I'm spun up about Trump originally taking the wrong docs.

I had this debate over the weekend with one of my intensely lefty in-laws (older gentleman, loves him some Noam Chomsky, thinks "Biden is a good man", and has never heard about Hunter's laptop, his penchant for hookers and meth and crack nor his love child with the stripper while he was seeing his brother's widow while he was still married to his first wife, but I digress). Anyway, in his mind, there was a conspiracy with Trump at the top of it, picking which classified documents went into which box for some nefarious intent.

What I think likely happened is the exit from the White House was a chaotic organized affair with staffers and the legal team throwing shit into boxes and was likely stored in a closet and not accessed at Mir-a-Lago until the FBI asked to review the materials a couple of months ago. And almost certainly every past administration has mingled classified material with other memorabilia on exiting the White House, which is why the FBI and Garland had a high expectation of an "interview" fishing expedition bearing fruit of a "criminal violation" of classified materials handling (despite this never being done against another former President) which could then be used to generate a political motivated FBI raid to either generate mid-term momentum for the Dems or (wish fulfillment) find actual evidence capable of being used to indict and prosecute Trump.

One thing to consider also is that Trump is probably the single most closely surveilled Presidential candidate, President, and ex-President by the US intelligence community, and his family and close associates are probably under intense FISA scrutiny with monitored intercepts of all of their electronic and voice communications, which means that they may actually KNOW of real crimes Trump has committed, but are trying to use parallel construction via the search warrant to build the criminal case - but for obvious reasons they can't come out and say they've been spying on Trump using the NSA. That's probably the dream scenario for the Never Trump / Democratic side of the political spectrum.

Regardless, most of the scenarios short of an imbedded informant in the Trump camp represent a locking in of the tyrannical shift that the Obama administration started by weaponizing the intelligence community against their political opponents and one that the Biden admin has continued by (continuing) the politicization and weaponization of the DOJ.
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