Al Qaeda's strategic planning

[Arctic]

In December 2003, a remarkable document, "Jihadi Iraq: Hopes and Dangers," appeared on the Internet, setting out a fascinating vision of how to isolate the United States and pick off its allies one by one. The truly ripe fruit, concluded the author, was Spain: "In order to force the Spanish government to withdraw from Iraq the resistance should deal painful blows to its forces" and make the utmost use of Spain's coming general election.

"We think," the author said, "that the Spanish government could not tolerate more than two, maximum three blows, after which it will have to withdraw." Three months later, on March 11, 2004, a cell of North African terrorists struck at the Atocha Train Station in Madrid.

I'm not sure if you guys discussed this article earlier. I found it fascinating. Was published in New York Times magazine, and reprinted in the International Herald Tribune. You can read the whole thing online at

http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/09/09/ ... ersary.php

In my humble opinion it's one of the most accurate and insightful analyses of the methods and motives of Al Qaeda.

[Sri Lanky]

This article implies that the American government fell right into the trap. How can people be so gullible so as to blindly follow their leaders? Is this culturally ingrained from birth? It must be. Why are so many stuck in a fundamentalist and absolutist worldview? I suppose once we reach that stage it can be so comforting that most people stay put in that mindset. What is needed is something catastrophic to shake the foundations of fundamentalism and the 'war on terror' may eventually provide that.

[Penta]

Haven't we had enough catastrophes recently?

[Arctic]

I think it was suggesting that the US had no choice but to follow that path once 9/11 happened, and Al Qaeda knew it and planned on it.

[GeneTherapies]

I think it was suggesting that the US had no choice but to follow that path once 9/11 happened, and Al Qaeda knew it and planned on it.

US had no choice but to follow the path of invading Iraq? What did Iraq have to do with 9/11?

Attacking Spain to get them out of Iraq worked, but I dont see how the invasion of Iraq naturally follows after 9/11. How did Al Qaeda know Bush would react to 9/11 by invading Iraq?

[Jumper]

I was reading through the book "Zarqawi: The New Face of Al-Qaeda" and came across some interesting info on the guy. Although the critics did not like the book, there was still some good stuff in it. One of which was that the guy was a total punk while growing up. He had tatoos all over and really wasn't that much of a practicing/good muslim. From the sounds of it, he went to Afghanistan to be a mujahadeen, but missed out on all the anti-soviet action. He sat at home during the balkans conflict. He even started a video shop(this is probably where his propensity towards filming his atrocities came from) but that failed. Ever since he got back from Afghanistan, he found god or allah that is. I equate this to a born again christian. He would go around in the mosques and offend other muslims by telling them that their faith was not as strong as his and they were bad muslims. He even did this with his family. Reminds me of most of the born again christians that I bump into. I also learned that Jordan had him in prison at one time. Then there is the "letter", but I wont get into that because there is nothing new there.

Rumor around the water cooler is that he was also born with a tail and is a chronic bed wetter. Poor Abu, poor little abu.....

[Sri Lanky]

Penta--unfortunately no,we haven't. The fun has just started.

[SeanPatrick]

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[GeneTherapies]

If I was President of the U.S., I would have Bin-Laden's families sequestered by some secret group

a. Bush would never fuck over his investors
b. Bush family is more vulnerable then bin Ladens

[Captain_Solo]

I was reading through the book "Zarqawi: The New Face of Al-Qaeda" and came across some interesting info on the guy. Although the critics did not like the book, there was still some good stuff in it. One of which was that the guy was a total punk while growing up. He had tatoos all over and really wasn't that much of a practicing/good muslim. From the sounds of it, he went to Afghanistan to be a mujahadeen, but missed out on all the anti-soviet action. He sat at home during the balkans conflict. He even started a video shop(this is probably where his propensity towards filming his atrocities came from) but that failed. Ever since he got back from Afghanistan, he found god or allah that is. I equate this to a born again christian. He would go around in the mosques and offend other muslims by telling them that their faith was not as strong as his and they were bad muslims. He even did this with his family. Reminds me of most of the born again christians that I bump into. I also learned that Jordan had him in prison at one time. Then there is the "letter", but I wont get into that because there is nothing new there.

Rumor around the water cooler is that he was also born with a tail and is a chronic bed wetter. Poor Abu, poor little abu.....

Actually that stuff about him being a "punk" is an exagerration. He was imprisoned in Jordan for anti-government activities and came under the influence of Shaykh Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi (see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abu_Muhammad_Asem_al-Maqdisi) who wished to see the Jordanian government overthrown and replaced with the Islamic shari'ah. Shaykh Abu Muhammad has been imprisoned in Jordan on numerous occasions and is there now after a brief release a few months back (and of course an interview with al-Jazeera). The book in question (I have read it) is full of inaccuracies about al-Zarqawi and seems more interested in making him out as some stupid thug. When in actuality, love him or hate him, al-Zarqawi is regarded as being very brilliant by many terrorism experts and is an elegent Arabic speaker (similar to Usama ibn Laden) that gains him the attention of the Arab world. If you want to read good books about al-Qa'eda I recommend Michael Scheuer who is very fair in his writings and understands Usama ibn Laden and the al-Qa'eda mindset very well.

[Captain_Solo]

If I was President of the U.S., I would have Bin-Laden's families sequestered by some secret group and broadcast their living quarters on the Internet for all to see. His cohort's families would be kidnapped too. The only deal would be a trade... You have to be as ruthless or more ruthless than an enemy to win. All of this of course would have to be kept on the low-down and the U.S. wouldn't acknowledge responsibility for the tactics.

You don't think the Arab and Israeli governments have already tried that? That sort of ploy may work on common criminals but not on people motivated by ideology. What you are suggesting would only more encourage them.

[illman]

The 9/11 Commission report states the connection between Iraq and Al-Qaeda. It was no "operational control", but there were clear connections between the 2.

Al-Qaeda wanted Bush defeated, which is why UBL released the video the weekend before the election.

Zarqawi .... where was he at the beginning of the Iraq war ? Iraq. By all accounts, he was moving terrorists at the time. Think Saddam knew he was in Iraq ?

Btw, as to connection with terrorism and secular saddam, who is ansar al-islam ?

[Rupert]

I like Mark Danner's writings, but he opportunistically perpetuates the misconception that the 3/11 attacks were a direct response to the invasion of Iraq. Yet, the plans had begun a year before the 9/11 attack, three years before the invasion. That's at least what I gather from this "liberal rag":
http://www.newyorker.com/fact/content/?040802fa_fact

One of the most sobering pieces of information to come out of the investigation of the March 11th bombings is that the planning for the attacks may have begun nearly a year before 9/11

Its a bit too much to credit Al Qaeda with provoking the US into Iraq (unless Chalabi is on their payroll.)

Al-Qaeda wanted Bush defeated, which is why UBL released the video the weekend before the election.

If that was the case, then Bin Laden doesn't get a decent news station signal and seen that fear of terrorism has runs parallel to Bush's approval ratings. I would assume that Bin Laden has been in enough wars to understand psychological conflict dynamics and appreciate that the more hardline his sworn enemy is, the more it rallies Muslims to his cause.

[SeanPatrick]

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[Captain_Solo]

The 9/11 Commission report states the connection between Iraq and Al-Qaeda. It was no "operational control", but there were clear connections between the 2.

They said they had contacts, no collaberation. Big difference. America's good ally Pakistan has had a far more deeper tie with al-Qa'eda then Iraq ever had.

Al-Qaeda wanted Bush defeated, which is why UBL released the video the weekend before the election.

On the contrary Usama bin Laden wanted Bush re-elected. The Bush administration has been good for Usama. Sure he lost a few of his most qualified people, but the little war in Iraq makes for a hell of a successful recruitment drive. And I'm sure bin Laden knew that releasing that video then would drive people toward Bush. Sa'ad al-Faqih (a Saudi dissident in Britain who has his ear to the ground in terms of al-Qa'eda) confirmed as much. Even Kerry acknowledged he lost the election in large part of the video. Believe me, Usama wanted Bush to win.

Zarqawi .... where was he at the beginning of the Iraq war ? Iraq. By all accounts, he was moving terrorists at the time. Think Saddam knew he was in Iraq ?

He was in Kurdistan which was not under the control of Saddam Hussein, but in the no-fly zone patrolled by the US and UK. Whether Saddam Hussein knew he was there or not made no difference. (The al-Zarqawi getting surgery in Baghdad story has been revealed to be a bunch of bunk). Oh and Abdul Rahman Yasin who was involved in the 93 WTC attack was actually imprisoned by Saddam (and was interviewed by CBS's 60 Minutes).

Btw, as to connection with terrorism and secular saddam, who is ansar al-islam ?

Another dubious claim. There has been no proof that Saddam Hussein funded Ansar al-Islam (which was based in Kurdistan) other then the statements made by alleged ex-members in prison by the Kurdish authorities (who made many other false statements). Mullah Krekar (the groups leader) had a long history of anti-Saddam opposition and had sought Usama's help against the Ba'ath regime. All of the Saddam\al-Qa'eda conspiracy theories have long since been debunked (except in the minds of the folks at FOX News or the National Review).