Canada:Federal politics

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Which is most likely?

Liberal minority with NDP coalition
1
11%
Liberal minority with Bloc Quebecois coalition
1
11%
Conservative minority with Bloc Quebecois coalition
1
11%
Conservative majority
1
11%
Grand coalition of Conservatives and Liberals
1
11%
No government/another election within a year
0
No votes
Other/don't know/don't care
4
44%
 
Total votes : 9

Canada:Federal politics

Postby Sri Lanky » Wed Jun 16, 2004 4:25 pm

Which do you think will be the likely scenario following the upcoming election?
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Postby Prodigal Son » Wed Jun 16, 2004 8:19 pm

I know too little to make a prediction. Some of the Canada watchers in the States seems to think Canadians are still primarly supportive of the Liberals, but are:

A. tired of the current crop
B. angry over the recent scandal over corruption in the pro-Federal campaign in Quebec.

The consensus opinion I've heard is that Canada MAY vote in the conservatives, but their stay in power won't really be that long or accomplish much.
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Postby ReptilianKittenEater » Wed Jun 16, 2004 9:23 pm

Worst combo would be the Conservative - Bloc alliance. Bloc would want to see massive decentralization, Conservatives wouldn't care. Canada would be less a country and more a EC type organization
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Postby Renard » Wed Jun 16, 2004 10:06 pm

Yes, and alliance but not a coalition. The Conservatives would just have the support of the Bloc, and the Bloc, being a left-wing party, would see to it that they the Conservatives couldn't revisit legislation on abortion and kyoto, etc. Simply put, the Bloc would hold the balance of power.

In any case, it would be a very precarious alliance, and one that might not survive the adoption of the first budget. But you are right on the decentralisation issue. The Conservatives are playing up the whole constitutional division of power issue, which would please the Bloc much.
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Postby goat balls » Wed Jun 16, 2004 11:16 pm

Some ORG in Canada is distributing pamphlets that say one of the candidates supports legalizing reefer, which apparently this guy (candidate) admitted in an interview. Anyway I hear this guy is leading in the polls. I also hear that the Conservatives are leading. What the hell is going on up there? I always viewed Canada as a kind of socialism lite. Conservatives? This could be the sign of hell freezing over.
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Postby Sri Lanky » Thu Jun 17, 2004 1:19 am

It looks like we could be in for an Italian style Pizza Parliament for awhile which of course means an election every year or two....especially if proportional representation is implemented.
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Postby Prodigal Son » Thu Jun 17, 2004 2:44 pm

Well, PR can be good or bad depedning upon how the system is set up. Germany has PR, and doesn't have elections and crumbling governments every other year. Italy should be seen as an outlier, not the norm. PR systems tend to be far more representative of the "public" than first-past-the-post systems.

So the Bloc would hold the balance? That's interesting...a nationalist, separatist party holding the balance. Would probably mean Quebec would be far less likely to leave Canada then if that sort of situation developed.
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hey goat balls

Postby kilroy » Thu Jun 17, 2004 4:09 pm

just cuz some guy smokes the loco weed don't mean that he's liberal. remember, bush jr. used to be a big fan of coke (i dont mean the soda). the idea that only a liberal could support legalization of drugs is an american idea. conservatives in other countries are for less gov't control, which means less laws and programs, whereas conservatives in america are for conservative moral values.
when they ask how you feeling
you tell em you feeling like something important died screaming
you tell em you feeling like something even more important arrived breathing
something you should probably try feeding
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Postby Renard » Thu Jun 17, 2004 6:59 pm

Prodigal Son wrote:Well, PR can be good or bad depedning upon how the system is set up. Germany has PR, and doesn't have elections and crumbling governments every other year. Italy should be seen as an outlier, not the norm. PR systems tend to be far more representative of the "public" than first-past-the-post systems.

So the Bloc would hold the balance? That's interesting...a nationalist, separatist party holding the balance. Would probably mean Quebec would be far less likely to leave Canada then if that sort of situation developed.


PR would not be implemented in the House of Commons. They will maintain the first-past-the-post system. Rather, it might be an idea at the Senate, as our Senators are appointed rather than elected. PR would give a bigger voice to the opposition parties.

As for the Bloc holding the balance of power, yes, this is a possible scenario. Then again, the NDP might hold it. I wouldn't worry about the separation issue, as this issue belongs at the provincial level. In any case, a pro-Canada party governs Quebec at the moment.
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Postby Prodigal Son » Thu Jun 17, 2004 7:33 pm

PR would not be implemented in the House of Commons. They will maintain the first-past-the-post system. Rather, it might be an idea at the Senate, as our Senators are appointed rather than elected. PR would give a bigger voice to the opposition parties.


Hmmm...then would not the Senate become the most important political institution in Canada? (if it has equivalent power to the commons...does it?)
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Postby Renard » Fri Jun 18, 2004 4:40 am

on paper, the senate has as much power. But not in practice. It's members are appointed by the Parliament, which more or less means by the government.

It is very rare that the Senate disapprove a bill put forward by the House of Commons. They are very much aware of their status as unelected officials. It would be a threat to democracy in Canada if they went against the will of the House of Commons.
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