Electric Cars: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan

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Electric Cars: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan

Postby Jumper » Sun Nov 11, 2007 7:21 pm

The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me)
by Elon Musk
Chairman of the Board

published Wednesday, August 2nd, 2006


Backgrounder: My day job is running a space transportation company called SpaceX, but on the side I am the chairman of Tesla Motors and help formulate the business and product strategy with Martin and the rest of the team. I have also been Tesla Motor’s primary funding source from when the company was just three people and a business plan.

As you know, the initial product of Tesla Motors is a high performance electric sports car called the Tesla Roadster. However, some readers may not be aware of the fact that our long term plan is to build a wide range of models, including affordably priced family cars. This is because the overarching purpose of Tesla Motors (and the reason I am funding the company) is to help expedite the move from a mine-and-burn hydrocarbon economy towards a solar electric economy, which I believe to be the primary, but not exclusive, sustainable solution.

Critical to making that happen is an electric car without compromises, which is why the Tesla Roadster is designed to beat a gasoline sports car like a Porsche or Ferrari in a head to head showdown. Then, over and above that fact, it has twice the energy efficiency of a Prius. Even so, some may question whether this actually does any good for the world. Are we really in need of another high performance sports car? Will it actually make a difference to global carbon emissions?

Well, the answers are no and not much. However, that misses the point, unless you understand the secret master plan alluded to above. Almost any new technology initially has high unit cost before it can be optimized and this is no less true for electric cars. The strategy of Tesla is to enter at the high end of the market, where customers are prepared to pay a premium, and then drive down market as fast as possible to higher unit volume and lower prices with each successive model.

Without giving away too much, I can say that the second model will be a sporty four door family car at roughly half the $89k price point of the Tesla Roadster and the third model will be even more affordable. In keeping with a fast growing technology company, all free cash flow is plowed back into R&D to drive down the costs and bring the follow on products to market as fast as possible. When someone buys the Tesla Roadster sports car, they are actually helping pay for development of the low cost family car.

Now I’d like to address two repeated arguments against electric vehicles — battery disposal and power plant emissions. The answer to the first is short and simple, the second requires a bit of math:

Batteries that are not toxic to the environment!
I wouldn’t recommend them as a dessert topping, but the Tesla Motors Lithium-Ion cells are not classified as hazardous and are landfill safe. However, dumping them in the trash would be throwing money away, since the battery pack can be sold to recycling companies (unsubsidized) at the end of its greater than 100,000-mile design life. Moreover, the battery isn’t dead at that point, it just has less range.

Power Plant Emissions aka “The Long Tailpipe”
(For a more detailed version of this argument, please see the white paper written by Martin and Marc.)

A common rebuttal to electric vehicles as a solution to carbon emissions is that they simply transfer the CO2 emissions to the power plant. The obvious counter is that one can develop grid electric power from a variety of means, many of which, like hydro, wind, geothermal, nuclear, solar, etc. involve no CO2 emissions. However, let’s assume for the moment that the electricity is generated from a hydrocarbon source like natural gas, the most popular fuel for new US power plants in recent years.

The H-System Combined Cycle Generator from General Electric is 60% efficient in turning natural gas into electricity. “Combined Cycle” is where the natural gas is burned to generate electricity and then the waste heat is used to create steam that powers a second generator. Natural gas recovery is 97.5% efficient, processing is also 97.5% efficient and then transmission efficiency over the electric grid is 92% on average. This gives us a well-to-electric-outlet efficiency of 97.5% x 97.5% x 60% x 92% = 52.5%.

Despite a body shape, tires and gearing aimed at high performance rather than peak efficiency, the Tesla Roadster requires 0.4 MJ per kilometer or, stated another way, will travel 2.53 km per mega-joule of electricity. The full cycle charge and discharge efficiency of the Tesla Roadster is 86%, which means that for every 100 MJ of electricity used to charge the battery, about 86 MJ reaches the motor.

Bringing the math together, we get the final figure of merit of 2.53 km/MJ x 86% x 52.5% = 1.14 km/MJ. Let’s compare that to the Prius and a few other options normally considered energy efficient.

The fully considered well-to-wheel efficiency of a gasoline powered car is equal to the energy content of gasoline (34.3 MJ/liter) minus the refinement & transportation losses (18.3%), multiplied by the miles per gallon or km per liter. The Prius at an EPA rated 55 mpg therefore has an energy efficiency of 0.56 km/MJ. This is actually an excellent number compared with a “normal” car like the Toyota Camry at 0.28 km/MJ.

Note the term hybrid as applied to cars currently on the road is a misnomer. They are really just gasoline powered cars with a little battery assistance and, unless you are one of the handful who have an aftermarket hack, the little battery has to be charged from the gasoline engine. Therefore, they can be considered simply as slightly more efficient gasoline powered cars. If the EPA certified mileage is 55 mpg, then it is indistinguishable from a non-hybrid that achieves 55 mpg. As a friend of mine says, a world 100% full of Prius drivers is still 100% addicted to oil.

The CO2 content of any given source fuel is well understood. Natural gas is 14.4 grams of carbon per mega-joule and oil is 19.9 grams of carbon per mega-joule. Applying those carbon content levels to the vehicle efficiencies, including as a reference the Honda combusted natural gas and Honda fuel cell natural gas vehicles, the hands down winner is pure electric:

Car Energy Source CO2 Content Efficiency CO2 Emissions
Honda CNG Natural Gas 14.4 g/MJ 0.32 km/MJ 45.0 g/km
Honda FCX Nat Gas-Fuel Cell 14.4 g/MJ 0.35 km/MJ 41.1 g/km
Toyota Prius Oil 19.9 g/MJ 0.56 km/MJ 35.8 g/km
Tesla Roadster Nat Gas-Electric 14.4 g/MJ 1.14 km/MJ 12.6 g/km


The Tesla Roadster still wins by a hefty margin if you assume the average CO2 per joule of US power production. The higher CO2 content of coal compared to natural gas is offset by the negligible CO2 content of hydro, nuclear, geothermal, wind, solar, etc. The exact power production mixture varies from one part of the country to another and is changing over time, so natural gas is used here as a fixed yardstick.

Becoming Energy Positive
I should mention that Tesla Motors will be co-marketing sustainable energy products from other companies along with the car. For example, among other choices, we will be offering a modestly sized and priced solar panel from SolarCity, a photovoltaics company (where I am also the principal financier). This system can be installed on your roof in an out of the way location, because of its small size, or set up as a carport and will generate about 50 miles per day of electricity.

If you travel less than 350 miles per week, you will therefore be “energy positive” with respect to your personal transportation. This is a step beyond conserving or even nullifying your use of energy for transport – you will actually be putting more energy back into the system than you consume in transportation!

So, in short, the master plan is:

Build sports car
Use that money to build an affordable car
Use that money to build an even more affordable car
While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options
Don’t tell anyone.

http://www.teslamotors.com/blog2/index.php?p=8&
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Postby Jumper » Sun Nov 11, 2007 7:36 pm

I know the Tesla Roadster has been posted before, but I just can't help myself. Enjoy.



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<img src="http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e74/matt_the_jumper/interior_800x6001.jpg" alt="Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting">

<img src="http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e74/matt_the_jumper/black_800x6001.jpg" alt="Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting">

<img src="http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e74/matt_the_jumper/3_4_front_800x6001.jpg" alt="Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting">

<img src="http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e74/matt_the_jumper/buy_main.jpg" alt="Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting">


And if you want to get on the wait list to get one, it costs 5,000 Dollars.

http://www.teslamotors.com/buy/buyPage1.php
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Postby Jumper » Sun Nov 11, 2007 7:45 pm

And for you Land Rover nuts, here is an EV conversion thats pretty cool.


<img src="http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e74/matt_the_jumper/045a.jpg" alt="Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting">



http://www.austinev.org/evalbum/45
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Postby Alessandro » Sun Nov 11, 2007 10:08 pm

Fisker coachbuild is also nice, http://www.fiskercb.com/
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Postby vagabond » Sun Nov 11, 2007 10:36 pm

thanks for the article Jumper. the strategy makes quite a bit of sense. i would rather have a flashy sports electric than a prius. start at the top, get the money rolling and start making a change.

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Postby Wayne » Sun Nov 11, 2007 10:42 pm

$5K to get on the list, but what is the actual MSRP?
Anyone but BO!
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Postby vagabond » Sun Nov 11, 2007 10:53 pm

close to US$100k

all the green celebrities in hollywood will be trading in their priuses for this baby.
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Postby Jumper » Sun Nov 11, 2007 10:55 pm

Configure your ideal Tesla Roadster. (You will have an opportunity at a later date to change and confirm these selections.)


base price: $98,000 *

Options & Accessories:

Satellite radio with 170 channels of digital sound, $400


Touch-screen navigation system with voice guidance, $1,200


Matching body-colored carbon fiber hardtop with full headliner, $3,200


Bluetooth cellular phone integration, $300


Seven-speaker premium sound system tuned for Tesla Roadster cockpit, $800


Tesla Motors custom floor mats, $125


Mobile charging system, $500



Premium microfiber seats (non-leather), $1,800

Our microfiber seats have a soft, sueded finish for a luxurious feel, and they are constructed using no animal products. Tesla Motors-branded floor mats are included with the package.




Standard leather interior, $0

The Tesla Roadster comes standard with smooth leather seats in black, dark gray, light gray, or beige. Select the premium leather tabs to view additional color options.




Satellite radio with 170 channels of digital sound, $400

Near CD-quality sound with a variety of listening choices. Tune into classical, jazz, pop, news, talk, and sports as well as specialized channels hard to find on standard radio. Requires a monthly service fee.




Touch-screen navigation system with voice guidance, $1,200

GPS navigation system uses clear, spoken instructions to guide you to your destination. A bright color screen displays maps in 2D or 3D views.




Matching body-colored carbon fiber hardtop with full headliner, $3,200

One of the only carbon fiber tops available on the market. Durable but light weight, the top can be lifted by most drivers. It was designed with headroom in mind and can accommodate drivers up to 6’5”.




Premium leather interior, $1,800

Our premium leather seats are available in nine solid colors. They feature soft, perforated leather surrounded by a smooth leather back and trim. Seat backs are finished with an embroidered Tesla Motors logo. The package also includes Tesla Motors-branded floor mats.




Premium two-tone leather interior, $1,800

Mix and match among nine colors and three styles to create a customized interior look. Our premium leather seats feature soft, perforated leather surrounded by a smooth leather back and trim. Seat backs are finished with an embroidered Tesla Motors logo. The package also includes Tesla Motors-branded floor mats.




Bluetooth cellular phone integration, $300

Add this connectivity option for hands-free cell phone dialing. (Bluetooth-enabled cell phone required.)




Seven-speaker premium sound system tuned for Tesla Roadster cockpit, $800

A dynamic seven-speaker system that includes one amplified sub-woofer, four front speakers (two midrange and two tweeters), and two rear midrange speakers.




Tesla Motors custom floor mats, $125

Plush floor mats imprinted with the Tesla Motors logo. (Mats included in two-tone premium interior package.)




Mobile charging system, $500

Recharge the Tesla Roadster from standard 110-volt and 220-volt outlets. Includes cable and a variety of outlet adapters.




Select an exterior color:

Interior colors:

Destination charge: $950

* Prices and options quoted are for the 2008 model year Tesla Roadster and are subject to change. Pricing for the 2009 model year Tesla Roadster has not been set. total: $98,950 *
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Postby Kurt » Sun Nov 11, 2007 11:08 pm

As much as I hate the Prius it has some things going for it.

Lots of space. Both for piling people in fairly comfortably (as long as you drive in a straight line..turning feels suicidal in these things) but mostly for modifications. The Prius is such a horrible car but it does provide a number fo computers, two engines and alot of room...so it allows people who are smarter than Toyota is to make it better. And two groups I always have faith in are nerds and hot rodders. The two groups I ahve the least amount of faith in are the Government and the people who designed this car.
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Re:

Postby Alessandro » Fri Mar 28, 2014 4:36 pm

Kurt wrote:As much as I hate the Prius it has some things going for it.

Lots of space. Both for piling people in fairly comfortably (as long as you drive in a straight line..turning feels suicidal in these things) but mostly for modifications. The Prius is such a horrible car but it does provide a number fo computers, two engines and alot of room...so it allows people who are smarter than Toyota is to make it better. And two groups I always have faith in are nerds and hot rodders. The two groups I ahve the least amount of faith in are the Government and the people who designed this car.

Now TM has forced reinforce their latest model with a shield, http://www.justcarnews.com/to-prevent-f ... del-s.html
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Re: Electric Cars: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan

Postby snaark » Fri Mar 28, 2014 6:04 pm

He forgot to mention the most important part of his plan: trick people into believing that digging up half of Bolivia to find the lithium to build batteries that will be charged using electricity from coal-fired power plants is actually "green".

This from the same man who wants to build this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop
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Re: Electric Cars: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan

Postby Alessandro » Fri Mar 28, 2014 7:13 pm

snaark wrote:He forgot to mention the most important part of his plan: trick people into believing that digging up half of Bolivia to find the lithium to build batteries that will be charged using electricity from coal-fired power plants is actually "green".

This from the same man who wants to build this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop

Whats wrong with Chilean lithium?
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Re: Electric Cars: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan

Postby snaark » Fri Mar 28, 2014 8:02 pm

Alessandro wrote:
snaark wrote:He forgot to mention the most important part of his plan: trick people into believing that digging up half of Bolivia to find the lithium to build batteries that will be charged using electricity from coal-fired power plants is actually "green".

This from the same man who wants to build this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop

Whats wrong with Chilean lithium?


Isn't that the same country?
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Re: Electric Cars: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan

Postby Alessandro » Sat Mar 29, 2014 6:27 am

snaark wrote:
Alessandro wrote:
snaark wrote:He forgot to mention the most important part of his plan: trick people into believing that digging up half of Bolivia to find the lithium to build batteries that will be charged using electricity from coal-fired power plants is actually "green".

This from the same man who wants to build this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop

Whats wrong with Chilean lithium?


Isn't that the same country?

Nope, two different, one was in war with Germany for many years....
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Re: Electric Cars: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan

Postby snaark » Sat Mar 29, 2014 8:52 am

Alessandro wrote:
snaark wrote:
Alessandro wrote:
snaark wrote:He forgot to mention the most important part of his plan: trick people into believing that digging up half of Bolivia to find the lithium to build batteries that will be charged using electricity from coal-fired power plants is actually "green".

This from the same man who wants to build this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop

Whats wrong with Chilean lithium?


Isn't that the same country?

Nope, two different, one was in war with Germany for many years....


Thanks for the geography lesson.
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