Electric Cars: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan

[coldharvest]

What the fuck is a 'mile'? You quoting Shakespeare or something?

fuck off new guy

[snaark]

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/08/tesla-model-s-owner-protests-singapores-carbon-emissions-surcharge.html

[ROB]

Were you one of the hundred thousand or so people who put down a deposit yesterday, Snaark?

10 Billion in presales in a day. Not bad for folks who have "no incentive" to buy one.

[snaark]

Nope, not least because I don't have US$35k to spend on a new car.

Apparently though, I'm not the only one who doubts they'll actually make a profit:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/01/tesla-short-interest-hits-record-high.html

[ROB]

You're worried about their share price?

Even that article says that P/E is 134 (as compared to 6 for other car manufacturers).

Pretty sure 134 needs to come a fair way down anyway.

[snaark]

Not really, since i dont own the stock. But the share price is an indicator of the level of hype.

[The Turd Polisher]

....Even that article says that P/E is 134 (as compared to 6 for other car manufacturers)......

tough to have a P/E ratio when you've never had the E

"Our Q4 non-GAAP net loss was $114 million, or $0.87 per share, and our Q4 GAAP net loss was $320 million or a loss of $2.44 per share, both based on 131 million basic shares. For full year 2015, our net loss was $2.30 per share on a non-GAAP basis and a loss of $6.93 per share on a GAAP basis, both based on 128 million basic shares."
Tesla Fourth Quarter & Full Year 2015 Update
10-Feb-2016

[snaark]

I was also wondering that. I guess they mean forward earnings, which seems pretty dubious since most analysts say it'll be a long time before they turn a profit, even with all the preorders.

[ROB]

Now who's all over the place?

Can't decide if you hate the guy, the company profit statement, the tech, the price or the buyer incentive...

Tasting a lot like plain old vanilla haterade.

[ROB]

"It is – by a long shot – the fastest growing customer order book in the history of the automobile industry."

[Kurt]

"It is – by a long shot – the fastest growing customer order book in the history of the automobile industry."

Orders for non-existent anything always turn out badly. If this is the exception to the rule that means Tesla is really an exceptional company. But here is what will likely happen:

Orders made, company keeps taking orders since this is driving up revenue while having expenses proportionally less. When they fail to deliver by their target date they will continue to take advanced orders in spite of not being able to deliver. Then when the late product arrives it will be sub-standard and their will be a class action suit.

But so far Tesla has done better than most "green" companies at delivering something close to what they promise, so I actually hope I am wrong, but when I hear about a flood of mass orders for something from a company whose main revenue is people who can afford $100k plus for a car and Government subsidies I get suspicious.

[Bronco]

Orders for the Tesla Model 3 were up over 250,000 yesterday. For price comparison, the Nissan Leaf is[was] the best selling electric car in the US and has a price of about $33,000. It has a proven record but less range per charge than the Tesla. Since the real Model 3 hasn't hit the road in it's final production form it's hard to say if it's going to be nicer or more comfortable than the other cars in the same price range, but if it's consistent with the previous model Teslas it promises to be one of the safest cars on the road. Supposedly, the Model 3 will have several features found on the Model S including GPS and the "fetch" feature which can have the car pull out of the garage, turn on the heat and sit waiting for the driver. On the road it has a self driving feature. In theory, the new models could be programed to deliver themselves to the new owners' home.

For the Model 3 orders, you have to provide $1,000 earnest money up front and the actual production date won't be until late 2017, delivery will begin in the US first as the cars are completed. Buyers should be prepared to wait until 2018 before they get their new cars, meanwhile you get 0% interest on your $1K. Buyers will be contacted at some later date to determine what extras they wish to have installed in their cars. Several companies have committed to buying fleets of the new cars.

Energy conservation on the West Coast (where Tesla lives) is alive and well because of an abundance of hydroelectric, solar and wind power which corresponds nicely with the population density. Many of the buyers (more specifically: hopeful investors) are banking on the idea that there will be a corresponding drop in pollution as well as free electricity via the Tesla Superchargers. Some people justify the expense of an electric car by saying their cost is reduced by saving the amount of money they used to pay for gasoline. There are also several tax incentives for buying electric cars.

Because of the huge turnout of buyers for the Model 3 Tesla is going to have to build new manufacturing facilities. Several places such as Canada, England and Australia are bidding in hopes that the new manufacturing plant(s) will be located there. Current plans are to initially use Albuquerque, New Mexico and the home plant in Fremont, California.

[snaark]

Orders for non-existent anything always turn out badly. If this is the exception to the rule that means Tesla is really an exceptional company. But here is what will likely happen:

Orders made, company keeps taking orders since this is driving up revenue while having expenses proportionally less. When they fail to deliver by their target date they will continue to take advanced orders in spite of not being able to deliver. Then when the late product arrives it will be sub-standard and their will be a class action suit.

Isn't that what just happened?
http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-35967714

[ROB]

Yeah, they can't keep up with demand.

Of all the business problems you can have, that ranks right down there with not knowing what to do with the epic piles of money you're making.

[Bronco]

Of all the business problems you can have, that ranks right down there with not knowing what to do with the epic piles of money you're making.

Spend it on rockets that can land back on earth and be recycled. Musk, Bezos and Branson are all playing with space ships.