Another one going down ...

[Penta]

Another of Bush's few remaining supporters in Europe is punished by voters:

By-election rout for Berlusconi
The centre-right ruling coalition of Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has suffered a crushing defeat in a round of by-elections.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/hi/w ... 954157.stm

[Aegis]

So, as a brit, whats the outlook at the moment for Tony Blair and the Labour Party?

[Penta]

Of course the situation in Britain is rather more complicated than, say, Italy or Spain, because our main opposition party (Conservative) is if anything more pro-war than Tony Blair (and we have a first past the post system). So who can we vote for? The third party, the Liberal Democrats, are anti-war and gaining some support, but, depending on where you live, voting LibDem might split the centre/left vote so a Conservative gets in, which doesn't help if you're anti-war. People are quite sophisticated in tactical voting, so disaffected Labour voters might vote LibDem where they have a chance of getting in, but they won't risk a Conservative victory. A lot will abstain, spoil their ballot papers, or vote for a minor but congenial party like the Greens, which would probably mean a Labour victory with a much reduced minority.

All that is contingent on Tony Blair still being party leader. Where I live, our MP is anti-war and generally good news (she's one of what are known as the 'usual suspects', i.e. perennial rebels against the leadership on issues which go against Labour party ideals, such as creeping privatisation of the national health service). Even so, almost everyone I discuss voting intentions with says they will not be able to bring themselves to vote for the Labour Party, i.e. her in our case, as long as Tony Blair is leading it. Hard on her, but people feel very strongly indeed. If Blair was replaced by the Chancellor, Gordon Brown, every one of those people, even those who aren't particularly keen on Brown, would go back to voting Labour. (In our local election last year, the LibDem and Green votes went up at the expense of the sitting Labour councillor, and a Conservative got in.)

But Blair is refusing to step down, and the party is reluctant to try to push him out, because it would still stay in power in that scenario: the first time ever the Labour Party would have won three elections in a row (mainly because the Conservative Party has virtually collapsed, for the time being). A lot of Labour MPs would lose their seats, but though you might expect them to put their personal interests before party interests (they're politicians, after all), a bruising leadership fight might jeopardise the party's chances of getting back in and mean that they wouldn't save their own seats anyway.

If we had a direct vote for or against Blair, he'd be out on his ear in a trice.

So unless an exhausted Blair -- who obviously doesn't enjoy being so unpopular -- decides the game's not worth the candle, or something else, such as his health, intervenes, we're stuck with him until after the next election.