BFC Presidential Election Poll

The Black Flag Cafe is the place travelers come to share stories and advice. Moderated by Robert Young Pelton the author of The World's Most Dangerous Places.

Moderator: coldharvest

Vote Now ! Hillary, Trump or Neither ( Fuck you 19D20 )

Hillary Clinton
7
26%
Donald Trump
10
37%
Fuck you 19D20
10
37%
 
Total votes : 27

Re: BFC Presidential Election Poll

Postby seektravelinfo » Mon Oct 24, 2016 4:28 pm

The Washington Times was founded by the Unification Church leader Sun Myong Moon, to counteract what he regarded as "liberal media".

Well and good to have a counter-punch, but not so much to have an agenda (in journalism) which this broadsheet clearly does. I put it on par with Breitbart with better writers. More than a few journalists have cut their teeth on this rag and have moved on to places like the NYT, for that I give them kudos for providing opportunity but the more promising reporters have moved on and away.
User avatar
seektravelinfo
BFCus Regularus
 
Posts: 5786
Joined: Fri Mar 26, 2004 5:18 am
Location: clevelandia

Re: BFC Presidential Election Poll

Postby Hitoru » Mon Oct 24, 2016 10:23 pm

[quote="rickshaw92"]How anyone would vote for this batty old woman is beyond me.

Hilliary is a nightmare president but the alternative is beyond the pale. Most of the posters on the BFC know a lot more about Geo-politics than trump does.

And Seeks, over the years prepping has been talked about ad nauseam here.
What are you? Some short sighted trigger puller? - RR3 .
Mr.wRong.
User avatar
Hitoru
Arbol Basura
 
Posts: 3546
Joined: Tue Mar 20, 2007 8:49 pm
Location: Tejas

Re: BFC Presidential Election Poll

Postby MJK » Mon Oct 24, 2016 10:48 pm

So you're saying that geopolitical ignorance is worse than dishonesty, sociopathy and a proven and documented track record of corruption and destruction? Interesting.
User avatar
MJK
BFCus Regularus
 
Posts: 1262
Joined: Thu Mar 25, 2004 2:59 am
Location: Fairbanks

Re: BFC Presidential Election Poll

Postby Hitoru » Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:23 am

Sure am.
Trump is a psychopathic narcosis that has no business being in charge of our country.
Hillary is more is more or less status quo.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not voting for either of them.

And I just can't wait for the new and improved AWB or ammo laws like have been enacted in kalifornia.
What are you? Some short sighted trigger puller? - RR3 .
Mr.wRong.
User avatar
Hitoru
Arbol Basura
 
Posts: 3546
Joined: Tue Mar 20, 2007 8:49 pm
Location: Tejas

Re: BFC Presidential Election Poll

Postby gnaruki » Tue Oct 25, 2016 1:07 am

Hilary is predictable, her health condition is odd but she should be ok for at least a term. Trump could end up with a service pistol shot to the chest within the first six months in office - for national security of course. I don't know if either party will be around in twenty years.

Goat balls, as for news sources I follow all sorts: I try to catch the nightly business report while making dinner every night, financial times, bloomberg, shadow stats, nyt, oilprice.com, a bunch of blogs that have some value, and i got contacts in the finance world (which is more harrowing than anything, there is no master of the universe. I've found myself talking to people on federal reserve boards that don't have a fucking clue or maybe they do and are incredible actors). What's important to me is oil and whatever reckless decisions the federal reserve is up to. The dollar is losing value and a recovery to it's old hegemony is unlikely.

MJK, no apologies needed. Many people from my generation are going to want to blame your generation for the mess we find ourselves in. In hindsight mistakes have been made for the past century or more. It's wrong to blame a certain subset or group of people for the problems we've inherited because its a systemic problem generations in the making.

Seeks, I don't get TEOTWAWKI nutters and I don't see any of them posting here either. If I lived in Alaska I'd have six months worth of food. I'd have similar protections in place if I was in some high desert zone in SW North America. Personally, I'm in an earthquake zone so I have two weeks at all times along with good friends and neighbors to pull through a disaster. Neighbors matter more than SPAM in a crisis.
User avatar
gnaruki
BFCus Regularus
 
Posts: 1763
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2011 12:39 am
Location: Pacific Northwest

Re: BFC Presidential Election Poll

Postby goat balls » Tue Oct 25, 2016 2:04 am

Gnaruki,

Why the interest in oil? I know more about it than those assholes at the fed. That's my business. And I'm not following you on the dollar, it's kicking ass and taking names. It's also kicking my ass as that's bad for oil. I also believe that the strong dollar will cause the bond market to have severe problems probably next year. Especially with the EM bonds.
User avatar
goat balls
BFCus Regularus
 
Posts: 2926
Joined: Thu Mar 25, 2004 1:12 pm
Location: Mexico

Re: BFC Presidential Election Poll

Postby gnaruki » Tue Oct 25, 2016 5:37 pm

The dollar is kicking ass right now. I don't know where it will be in ten years and looking that far out is just wild speculation anyway.

Fresh water is the most important commodity for living but oil is the most important commodity for an industrial economy. If oil gets too cheap or too expensive our entire economy goes out of wack - fast. What first hooked me into oil was reading Twilight in the Desert by Matthew Simmons ten years ago. Alarmist stuff but it was my introduction into how the oil market works. Oil cost tends to dictate everything else in our economy, whatever is going on with oil now is a good indicator of what our economy will be facing later. That isn't going away soon, electric cars and non-fossil power plants need oil too.
User avatar
gnaruki
BFCus Regularus
 
Posts: 1763
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2011 12:39 am
Location: Pacific Northwest

Re: BFC Presidential Election Poll

Postby flipflop » Fri Oct 28, 2016 10:29 am

Still think the Trumpster is going to win it, I'm a betting man, it's well worth a punt

Cheers
Patriots always talk of dying for their country, and never of killing for their country - Bertrand Russell
User avatar
flipflop
Cuntus Maximus
 
Posts: 8382
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 11:11 am
Location: Arse Full Of Chips

Re: BFC Presidential Election Poll

Postby rickshaw92 » Fri Oct 28, 2016 10:32 am

flipflop wrote:Still think the Trumpster is going to win it, I'm a betting man, it's well worth a punt

Cheers



I hope so. I would really like to see what happens if he does. His TV show was entertaining so I am sure his presidency will be too. No one expect Brexit to win but it did. Anything can happen.
Im reallly fuclimg pissed but fespite that I can still hit a tarfet at 1000m plus. mayVRVe bnot tonight but it qint beyond the wit if man. Nowhammy.
User avatar
rickshaw92
Pikey Bastard
 
Posts: 8900
Joined: Fri Mar 26, 2004 1:28 am
Location: Airport Inn trailer park

Re: BFC Presidential Election Poll

Postby flipflop » Fri Oct 28, 2016 10:36 am

Shillary is being propped up by any number of Michael Jackson doctors, I expect her to be dirtnapping before the end of 2017. There's my accumulator -

Trump FTW November

---and---

HRC a corpse by NYE 2017

Worth a tenner bet at least

Cheers
Patriots always talk of dying for their country, and never of killing for their country - Bertrand Russell
User avatar
flipflop
Cuntus Maximus
 
Posts: 8382
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 11:11 am
Location: Arse Full Of Chips

Re: BFC Presidential Election Poll

Postby nowonmai » Fri Oct 28, 2016 2:08 pm

Personally I am often guilty of a secret Trump. Usually blame the dog.

I wantTrump to win just to feel the warm glow of liberal butthurt around the world. Then I'll go back to not giving a fuck.

Trump is coming. Sounds like a Zulu Impi to the ears of corrupt pseudo-liberals who will be smashed on the horns of Trump. Yee ha!

GOP insiders: Polls don't capture secret Trump vote
'I personally know many Republicans that won't admit that they are voting for Trump. I don't like admitting it myself,' said a Virginia Republican.
By STEVEN SHEPARD 10/28/16 05:03 AM EDT
caucus 1028.jpg
More than seven-in-10 GOP insiders, 71 percent, say the polls understate Donald Trump’s support. | POLITICO Illustration / Getty
Facebook
Twitter
Google +
Email
Comment
Print

THE POLITICO CAUCUS
caucus illo 122515.jpg
In the archive: Past stories in the Caucus series
The POLITICO Caucus archives

Those battleground state polls that paint such a grim picture of Donald Trump's prospects against Hillary Clinton? Most Republican insiders don't believe they're accurately capturing Trump’s true level of support.

That’s according to the POLITICO Caucus — a panel of activists, strategists and operatives in 11 key battleground states. More than seven-in-10 GOP insiders, 71 percent, say the polls understate Trump’s support because voters don’t want to admit to pollsters that they are backing the controversial Republican nominee.


With Trump falling behind in the majority of swing states, an overwhelming polling error may represent his best hope to win next month — and even that may not be enough. At the same time GOP insiders say there are “shy Trump” voters out there who aren't showing up in the polls, a 59-percent majority still say Clinton would win their state if the election were held today.

“I'm not sure how big a factor it is, but there is definitely a ‘Bradley effect’ going on out there,” said a Virginia Republican, referring to the African-American mayor of Los Angeles who led in polls but lost unexpectedly in the 1982 California gubernatorial race. “I personally know many Republicans that won't admit that they are voting for Trump. I don't like admitting it myself. It won't matter if Hillary is up more than 5 points, but we might be in for a surprise if Hillary's lead is less than 5 points on Election Day.”

A Michigan Republican — who, like all insiders, completed the survey anonymously —added that Trump voters are reticent to admit it publicly: “Anecdotally, that's clearly the case in barber-shop conversations.”

A number of Republicans said that while they believe the polls are underestimating Trump, his deficit is too large for it to matter.

“He'll outperform the polls but still won't win,” a Pennsylvania Republican said.

“This form of survey bias is a common but marginal factor in many polls,” an Ohio Republican added.


For other Republicans, the “shy Trump” effect that might be deflating Trump’s support is less an issue than other sources of bias in the polls.

“I also believe that by polling likely voters rather than registered voters, polls are missing a lot of where Trump's support lies,” an Iowa Republican said.

The phenomenon known as social desirability bias “may be part of it,” a Nevada Republican said. “I also think that the pollsters have not accounted for the uniqueness of this election and are not necessarily asking the right questions of the correct samples. Finally, many of the polls are deliberately slanted to suit the media's political agenda. Taken all together, it’s almost impossible to know who is leading at this point.”

Some cited the energy of Trump supporters to suggest his backers are unforthcoming with pollsters.

“I see a lot of Trump signs on people's lawns, plus a lot of anti-Clinton signs,” said a New Hampshire Republican.

But for a minority of Republicans, 29 percent, those hoping for a secret Trump vote to emerge on Election Day will be disappointed.

“We did not see this in the primaries. There is no basis [for it],” a Michigan Republican said. “I think there is just as much pressure on Republicans to say you're going to vote for him when you have no intention [to do so].”

“Does anyone really care whether or not a survey-taker disapproves of their choice?” a North Carolina Republican asked. “Besides, Trump doesn’t always fare worse in live-caller polls. The IBD/TIPP poll, which has been among the handful of outlier polls more positive to Trump, is after all a live-caller poll. The truth is that Trump's support is not substantially different in live-caller polls versus IVR and internet panels. Both types of polls have outliers, but the difference is not a significant one.”

Added a Colorado Republican: “In 2012 people said the polls were wrong because voters didn't want to sound like racists for not voting for President Obama. Polls weren't wrong. People on the losing side of the polls always invent a reason for it.”

Among Democrats, nearly three-quarters, 74 percent, say the hidden Trump vote doesn’t exist, while 26 percent say it does.

A Florida Democrat called it a “ludicrous claim by someone who is losing. As someone who has been on unsuccessful campaigns I know what it's like to throw out every excuse in the book to keep supporters engaged.”

But some Democrats, drawing from experiences in their states, are concerned that these voters do exist — and they could be more of a factor in a closer race.

“Former [Philadelphia] Mayor Frank Rizzo always outperformed his polling numbers because voters would not admit their true intentions,” a Pennsylvania Democrat said. “There is no doubt there is a sense of embarrassment and isolation for the Trump voter who is educated and lives in Philadelphia or its suburbs. And I would think the phenomena holds true in similar markets. I think this also holds true with African-American voters. There is a hidden vote for him above what the polling shows. But a hidden vote in either scenario is a few points in that subset, not enough to get him to the promised land.”

“That is what we call in Virginia the ‘Wilder factor,’” a Democrat there added. “Voters did not want to admit that they were not going to vote for the first African American for Governor in 1989, thus making the race close. I think there is some of that, but not in record numbers.”

Other Democrats insisted that the polls are under-representing Clinton supporters, not Trump voters.

“I think the polls are just as likely to underestimate Hispanic support and enthusiasm as they are to underestimate angry white guys,” a Florida Democrat said.

And an Iowa Democrat suggested: “I think polls underestimate Clinton's strength because of the married women who tell their husbands they are for Trump to keep the peace.”

GOP insiders: Trump choking on Obamacare opportunity

The Obama administration’s announcement this week that premiums would rise next year for individual health-insurance plans available on the exchanges vaulted the 2010 health-care law back into the electoral debate.

But GOP swing-state insiders say Trump has failed to capitalize on the lingering dissatisfaction with Obamacare, particularly with Republicans and the persuadable swing voters Trump needs to make the race more competitive.

Only 28 percent said Trump is doing a good job attacking Clinton on the Obamacare premium increases, while 72 percent said he isn’t doing a good job.

Many of those dissatisfied with Trump’s response cited his Wednesday-morning event in Washington: a ribbon-cutting at the new Trump hotel on Pennsylvania Avenue.

“Donald Trump and Republicans were just handed a lifeline with the Obamacare premium increases,” a Colorado Republican said. “Instead of using it to help his own campaign and down-ticket Republicans, Trump has decided to focus his time talking about Trump Hotel.”


“When you are spending time opening a hotel you are wasting a golden opportunity to strike fear in the hearts of Democrats everywhere,” a Florida Republican added.

Other Republicans complained about Trump’s lack of discipline overall, which they say undermines his message.

“If the GOP had a candidate who could effectively prosecute the case instead of getting distracted by sideshows, then this could be a huge deal in this election,” an Ohio Republican said.

Some Republicans said that while the premium increases could raise an argument for most GOP candidates, Trump has struggled to make cogent critiques on more complex issues during the campaign.

“Like everything else, he doesn't take the time to understand what is really happening and shows no real insight into the problem nor does he propose any rational solutions,” a New Hampshire Republican said.

“He doesn't understand policy, he doesn't care about policy, and he's not a conservative,” a Virginia Republican added. “So you just handed a one-year-old an iPhone. He'll try to push the buttons but not in any manner that makes sense or works.”

Among the minority of GOP insiders who said Trump was doing a good job hitting Clinton on the issue, some couched their praise.

One Ohio Republican said Trump was doing “as well as can be expected for a guy who has voiced support for various forms of single-payer health care.” A New Hampshire Republican wondered whether Trump “can … consistently stay focused on that message or will he wander off into issues that don't matter.”

A Virginia Republican said the issue could still help Trump because “anything that makes people think about [Clinton] helps Trump and hurts [Clinton].”

Meanwhile, Democratic insiders mostly said Clinton was doing a good job dealing with dissatisfaction with Obamacare: 78 percent to 22 percent.

“She has repeatedly said here that there are things that need to be fixed, and people here at least understand she had nothing to do with this version of it,” a New Hampshire Democrat said.



Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/d ... z4OOA9PuVS
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook
User avatar
nowonmai
BFCus Regularus
 
Posts: 11464
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 8:52 pm

Re: BFC Presidential Election Poll

Postby goat balls » Fri Oct 28, 2016 7:17 pm

Oh bad luck for the leftists. It would appear that Clinton Crime Inc. was unable to bleachbit all of their emails and now they've landed in the fbi's hands. The horror. Also interesting that the fbi seems to have been shamed into doing something about it. Lots of rumors about discontent in the ranks. That's awfully inconvenient and I'm sure the democrats are meeting to try and decide who gets whacked and how to get rid of the bodies.
User avatar
goat balls
BFCus Regularus
 
Posts: 2926
Joined: Thu Mar 25, 2004 1:12 pm
Location: Mexico

Re: BFC Presidential Election Poll

Postby ROB » Tue Nov 01, 2016 9:12 am

flipflop wrote:Still think the Trumpster is going to win it, I'm a betting man, it's well worth a punt

Cheers


Too right. The odds are too good not to put something on it at least. So many factors that have never occurred before throws massive unknowns into predictions.
User avatar
ROB
BFCus Regularus
 
Posts: 5054
Joined: Thu Mar 25, 2004 3:49 am

Re: BFC Presidential Election Poll

Postby Kurt » Wed Nov 02, 2016 12:13 pm

Trump is gonna win this. He is a rotten person. Its like having the 1980s run the world, the shitty part we make fun of now.

But this is not the fault of the electorate, this fault lands squarely in the lap of the Democrats, who thought they could sacrifice a progressive agenda for Banksterism hidden behind a veneer of equality.

It turns out that though most people hate the casual date rape-o talk of Trump and the jubilant racism of his followers, what they hate more than that is Hillary Clinton. They'd rather take the chance on an orange buffoon because they have no idea what he would do, which they find more appealing than knowing what Hillary is going to do.

Tip for next election. Vote for the person who is amused by a bird landing on his podium and not someone who ignores a fly crawling on her face. Do this even if you cannot figure out what the issues are.

Here is what is gonna happen. If Clinton wins fat Trump supporters are gonna shoot some people. If Trump wins Liberals will talk of moving to Canada but they will not move to Canada.
And from thence they went to Beer....(Num 21:16)
English Bespoke Tailor New York City
Internet research and investigation
User avatar
Kurt
In Manus Manus
 
Posts: 19635
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 6:29 am
Location: New York City

Re: BFC Presidential Election Poll

Postby rickshaw92 » Wed Nov 02, 2016 2:14 pm

They'd rather take the chance on an orange buffoon because they have no idea what he would do


That's the best part. The suspense is killing me and he hasn't even won this thing yet.

If Trump wins Liberals will talk of moving to Canada but they will not move to Canada.


Well thank fuck for that!
Im reallly fuclimg pissed but fespite that I can still hit a tarfet at 1000m plus. mayVRVe bnot tonight but it qint beyond the wit if man. Nowhammy.
User avatar
rickshaw92
Pikey Bastard
 
Posts: 8900
Joined: Fri Mar 26, 2004 1:28 am
Location: Airport Inn trailer park

PreviousNext

Return to Black Flag Cafe

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 6 guests

cron