While we pay attention to an Orange Man

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While we pay attention to an Orange Man

Postby Kurt » Wed Aug 03, 2016 1:24 pm

and object to a European nation exercising their sovereignty and Democracy by voting to leave a Union.

China is calling for a "Bloody Nose" strategy.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-south ... SKCN10B10G

Against Vietnam.

They did this before in 1979 and were repelled by the Vietnamese (according to the Vietnamese the Chinese were repelled by their irregular militias, which is believable since those militias had been battle hardened for about 30 years prior). The Chinese claim they won the war, but that is likely propaganda that is believed to this day.

Japan has been working on re-writing their pacifist constitution. They do not have the birth rate for war, but they have blown a few North Korean "spy boats" out of the water and seemed to enjoy themselves immensely while doing it. They are also providing "aid" to the Viets and the Filipinos to help them deal with China and their 30 year policy of female infanticide Single Child. So they are lopsided with young men.

If there is a war there and we (the US) does nothing we will be in awesome shape. We would be able to compete in manufacturing again because the Asians are gonna do it old school and destroy ports and industrial areas.

Of course we will likely be idiots and get involved or at least fund their rebuilding so they can have the containerized shipping and factories again that made the Rust belt in the first place (which we also funded via low tarriffs for them but allowing them to put high tarrifs on our goods)
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Re: While we pay attention to an Orange Man

Postby ROB » Wed Aug 03, 2016 2:00 pm

Compete in manufacturing again?

The US manufactures over double what it did in the 70s.

You compete in manufacturing just fine.

It's just the robots do a big chunk of the work now.
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Re: While we pay attention to an Orange Man

Postby Kurt » Wed Aug 03, 2016 2:18 pm

ROB wrote:Compete in manufacturing again?

The US manufactures over double what it did in the 70s.

You compete in manufacturing just fine.

It's just the robots do a big chunk of the work now.


I should not have said compete. I should have said dominate.

making stuff and exporting stuff is where the real money is at.
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Re: While we pay attention to an Orange Man

Postby ReptilianKittenEater » Thu Aug 04, 2016 2:59 am

Vietnamese are cool. You could argue the 1979 war was a draw, but Lilliput Vietnam gave China a pasting.
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Re: While we pay attention to an Orange Man

Postby ROB » Thu Aug 04, 2016 3:45 am

Kurt wrote:I should not have said compete. I should have said dominate.

making stuff and exporting stuff is where the real money is at.


No it isn't. Not even close.
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Re: While we pay attention to an Orange Man

Postby Kurt » Thu Aug 04, 2016 6:20 pm

ROB wrote:
Kurt wrote:I should not have said compete. I should have said dominate.

making stuff and exporting stuff is where the real money is at.


No it isn't. Not even close.


OK. That convinces me. Thanks.
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Re: While we pay attention to an Orange Man

Postby Kurt » Thu Aug 04, 2016 11:41 pm

Of course, to these people an East Asian destructo war would help immensely, or just not having had their industry pack up and move to China would have been easier than hoping for war in a far off place to help them out.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-m ... SKCN10F0CT
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Re: While we pay attention to an Orange Man

Postby ROB » Fri Aug 05, 2016 2:30 am

Kurt wrote:OK. That convinces me. Thanks.


I didn't expect it to convince you, but I had a distant hope that it might prompt a 30 second google session.

US manufacturing is up roughly 2.5x since the 70s.

US manufacturing currently accounts for roughly 6% of GDP.

The falloff in the importance of manufacturing for developed economies is not a specifically US phenomenon and is actually a sign of a successful economy.

-------

https://www.imf.org/EXTERNAL/PUBS/FT/ISSUES10/INDEX.HTM

This paper maintains that deindustrialization is primarily a feature of successful economic development and that North-South trade has very little to do with it. Measured in real terms, the share of domestic expenditure on manufactured goods has been comparatively stable over the two past decades. Consequently, deindustrialization is principally the result of higher productivity in manufacturing than in services. The pattern of trade specialization among the advanced economies explains why some countries deindustrialize faster than others. Finally, the paper suggests that advances in the service sector, rather than in the manufacturing sector, are likely to encourage the growth of living standards in the advanced economies in the future.
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Re: While we pay attention to an Orange Man

Postby MJK » Fri Aug 05, 2016 7:49 am

The last sentence in that article/white paper/just blowin' smoke up your ass piece claims that the service industry will see all the benefits in the new economies. So the future is us getting paid to do each other's laundry. Yay.


From where did you dredge up this tripe?
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Re: While we pay attention to an Orange Man

Postby ROB » Fri Aug 05, 2016 1:18 pm

MJK wrote:From where did you dredge up this tripe?


Emeritus Professor of Economics at the University of Cambridge
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Re: While we pay attention to an Orange Man

Postby ROB » Fri Aug 05, 2016 1:27 pm

MJK wrote:the service industry will see all the benefits in the new economies. So the future is us getting paid to do each other's laundry.


Your understanding of what the "service industry" actually is is quite revealing of your lack of general knowledge and reading.

You really are a tumble weed on the plane of ideas.

Try harder.
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Re: While we pay attention to an Orange Man

Postby Kurt » Fri Aug 05, 2016 1:50 pm

One of the reasons why idiots like Trump get listened to is that their garbage is wrapped around a stick of truth. "Make America Great Again" does not look at the 70s manfufacturing base as the ideal but rather the late 40s and early 50s. Granted, those were times when Europe and Asia were rebuilding from the war and the US was relatively unscathed, but it was also a time when manufacturing was located here and the income and cost of living was quite good. In the 50s the manufacturing industry could mean only 1 member per household needed to work to support 2 adults plus whatever kids came along.

And then someone will come along and say "service economy" or now "gig economy" and sneer when people doubt that as being a good thing. especially when quoting stats comparing now to the height of US "stagflation", an oil crisis, paying the costs of the war in Vietnam, the creation of the Rust belt and the start of the farm crisis as the yardstick to measure current prosperity.

Trump is not created by the idiots who love him Trump is created by a detached and callous elite.

Also, like I said, A war in Asia that the US does not fight in will put us at the late 40's and 50s level of competition as long as we are not dumb enough to get involved or pay for the rebuilding. I am saying a war in East Asia will make us better off just like how War in the middle east made China and Russia better off ten years ago.
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Re: While we pay attention to an Orange Man

Postby goat balls » Fri Aug 05, 2016 7:24 pm

The Chinese steal intellectual property, re-manufacture the item and then sell it back to us at half price. Putting our guys out of business.

And Kurt, I think you're more right than wrong on the manufacturing numbers. The feds don't count each mercedes that comes in at the dock. Mostly they look at units of currency which fluctuate. Did mercedes raise or lower the price of each unit? Really they follow the money. And its not that accurate and they come back with a bunch of revisions which still aren't very good. Plus they now include a significant percentage of items that the normal person would not associate with manufacturing as manufacturing.

Look at the official inflation rate. Now they don't include food and energy in the official inflation rate. And boy do we have a low inflation rate.

Look at the unemployment numbers. Around 95 million not working and the official unemployment rate is 5%. How about all of the people that had their hours cut from 40 hours a week to 30 hours a week because of obamacare? Yeah they're counted as fully employed.

Crude oil is tracked by the EIA and the IEA. One US and the other in France if I'm not mistaken. They report crude production, supply in storage and demand. The only problem is that both include condensate and other liquids in their total liquids categories as API gravity acceptable crude. And it's not, the refineries don't want it. This oversight is going to show up sooner rather than later in the price of oil.

Every law that is passed by congress is required to undergo an economic impact study. The politicians tell the economic impact team what they want the results to be and that's what they are.

Government numbers are manipulated for political purposes, or wrong because of the difficulty of the job and overall they're not very good. But in most cases they're all we have. But I wouldn't make a big wager on them.
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Re: While we pay attention to an Orange Man

Postby MJK » Fri Aug 05, 2016 9:50 pm

Since 2014 the US has added NO manufacturing jobs and a half a million bartender/waitperson jobs. And didn't you mean plains rather than plane? Don't bother to try harder; as a statist lackey you are doing just fine.

Time to repost that picture of Snaark's reaction to seeing you naked for the first time.
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Re: While we pay attention to an Orange Man

Postby ROB » Sun Aug 14, 2016 9:53 am

And it will continue to bleed manufacturing jobs at the same time as expanding actual production because of industrial efficiencies achieved by top economies (like the roughly 25 other countries at the top which are experiencing exactly the same thing).

As I said, try harder.
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