Iran is still winning

The Black Flag Cafe is the place travelers come to share stories and advice. Moderated by Robert Young Pelton the author of The World's Most Dangerous Places.

Moderator: coldharvest

Iran is still winning

Postby ROB » Sat Sep 03, 2016 6:31 am

Over the past decade and a half, Iran has never wavered in its unlimited financial, diplomatic and intelligence support for its protégés

Thirteen years since the American invasion of Iraq, five years after the bruising of its allies Bashar al-Assad and Hezbollah in Syria, two years after Operation Storm Resolve against its protégés in Yemen, and Iran still has the upper hand in four Arab countries, and is still expanding.

Despite some setbacks, Iran and its allies seem invincible. In reality, Iran and its allies are tired and broke, but Tehran enjoys an advantage that its rivals, America and its Arab allies, lack: Steadiness that sometimes borders on stubbornness.

When America had an army of over 150 thousand troops in Iraq, Iran still maintained much bigger influence. Word has it that Iranian officials used to tell their Iraqi counterparts that America will eventually withdraw and go back home, but we, Iran, will remain here (both figuratively in terms of influence inside Iraq and physically as Iraq’s next door neighbor).

President Obama proved the Iranian prophecy true. As America wound down its Iraq operation, especially by ending its financial and political support to Sunnis, Iran stepped up its support of the Shiites, and even instructed them to hunt down the Sunnis, thus pushing many of those into the arms of ISIS. Iran is always happy to see Sunnis radicalized. Such a trend justifies Iran’s ambition to wage war on, and subdue, all the Sunnis of the region.

In Lebanon, America and its European and Arab allies proved as impatient as in Iraq. After an initial diplomatic offensive in 2004 through UN Security Council Resolution 1559, Washington seemed determined to bolster its allies in Beirut.

Syria’s Assad caved and withdrew his troops from Lebanon, but Iran doubled down on its protégés and even instructed them — like in Iraq — to hunt down their rivals. Between 2005 and 2011, the Lebanese allies of America and Arab countries fell, one after another, some to booby traps while others were simply gunned down in the middle of the day in Beirut’s crowded neighborhoods.

By 2008, America and its Arab allies conceded to Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon, as Washington instructed Lebanon’s March 14 to accept Hezbollah’s diktats at the Doha Accord. This was followed by Western outreach out to Assad, presumably to lure him away from Iran. By 2010, Lebanon was completely transformed into an Iranian satellite state, just like Iraq would become starting in 2011.

Iran is now using a page from the same playbook in Yemen, where it armed the Houthi militia, instructed it to stir up political trouble, invade the capital and finally impose its own solution for the country. At first, America and its Arab allies raised hell and started a war, whose aim was to liberate Sanaa and reinstall the government that the Houthis had ejected.

As of last week, the Yemeni government in exile was been told to lower its expectations and soften its demands in its negotiations with the Houthis. Iran correctly sensed tiredness and impatience on the side of its opponents, and hence signaled to its allies to turn up the heat. Instead of settling for compromise, the Houthis elected a “Higher Political Council,” the equivalent of a cabinet, in Sanaa, as Houthi officials responded to their disarmament by saying “whoever want to take our arms, we will take away their lives.”

In Syria, the Iranian victory is not clear yet. What is obvious is the ongoing division of the country into an Iran-dominated western Syria, and everybody else in eastern Syria. Dividing Syria has been coupled with UN-sponsored ethnic cleansing, as evident in the evacuation of the Damascus suburb of Darayya, not of opposition fighters only, but of its native civilian population.

Over the past decade and a half, and throughout the upheavals in the region, Iran has never wavered in its unlimited financial, diplomatic and intelligence support of its protégés. As Lebanon’s former Prime Minister Saad Hariri sheds employees and watches his political and financial empire collapse, a much more thinly stretched Hezbollah — due to its fight in Syria — has yet to show financial fractures. Hezbollah, and Iran in effect, even bailed out a minor newspaper like Assafir by impressing on their friends the need to keep it afloat, whereas on the side of Hezbollah’s opponents, journalists are facing severe delays in salary payments, if they’re receiving them at all.

When compared to America and its allies, Iran’s resources are meager. But when comparing steadiness and patience, Iran beats its opponents by a wide margin. Should such a trend continue, Iran should be expected to snatch a few more Arab capitals over the course of the coming decade.

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/commentarya ... ll-winning
User avatar
ROB
BFCus Regularus
 
Posts: 5001
Joined: Thu Mar 25, 2004 3:49 am

Re: Iran is still winning

Postby Kurt » Sat Sep 03, 2016 2:12 pm

Iran was and is smarter than anyone else in the area. The Kurds show some good Moxie once and a while but they are hated not only by the major players in the area but by one another as well. The ones in Iraq will be battle hardened enough to hold on to their area and as long as the words "Greater" never leave their lips they should be ok.

I think I posted a number of times a few years ago here where Iranian intel has bitch slapped pretty much everyone they ever encountered including the USA. Iran-Contra..We got played so hard it was hilarious. Osirak...when Iran got Israel to do their work for them because the US would not retaliate against Israel. How they got the US to remove Saddam Hussien, the only person in the area they were afraid of (the connections between Ledeen, Chalabi and Ghorbanifar make that a "not crazy statement".

In spite of ROB's uber pissy mood for the last year or so, he is right with this and I would argue did not go far enough in the exploration of how Iran played everyone and emerged unscathed and even in a better position than they were before 2003.

If we want to learn a lesson from Iran, what we need to do is to start presenting "Moderates" to other nations. Present a "Moderate" to China on Taiwan and the Spratlys (Moderate meaning "Its yours China, but our "Moderates" need your help first") and to Russia (NATO is big enough and we would like to rid ourselves of a few members...but we need your help first Vladimir). But we are too used to dick wagging and force. Force only works when you actually use nukes these days or you invade and retreat and do not pay for recovery of the area. So since that is not our tactic at all we would do best to appear to have a "pussy" opposition that is willing to work with our opponents, and then we would start getting what we wanted because the pussies would never succeed but always be present to temp a new ruling class.

We just could not pull this on Iran since they invented it.
And from thence they went to Beer....(Num 21:16)
English Bespoke Tailor New York City
Internet research and investigation
User avatar
Kurt
In Manus Manus
 
Posts: 19629
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 6:29 am
Location: New York City

Re: Iran is still winning

Postby Q » Sat Sep 03, 2016 2:52 pm

If it ever comes down to a direct shooting match, there's no lock in a win for the US.

Ex: The US still hasn't learned its Millennium Challenge lesson.

If you need a reminder: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millenn ... lenge_2002

Every time Iran sends its little fast boats out to harass US ships of the line, everyone laughs. You see it coming from the Pentagon, all the way down to the ankle biter blog writers. It's a big joke to them.

Well, it's clear the Iranians paid attention. We'll see who is laughing soon I'm guessing.
I am the object of criticism around the world. But I think that since I am being discussed, then I am on the right track.

- The Dear Leader
User avatar
Q
Al-Aqua Teen Martyr's Brigade
 
Posts: 7820
Joined: Sat Mar 27, 2004 6:29 am
Location: Piss off

Re: Iran is still winning

Postby Kurt » Sat Sep 03, 2016 5:40 pm

Yep, the Millenium Challenge was a big one. 14 years later people are asking "Are aircraft carriers vulnerable?" Uh, yep, really large floaty things with billions of dollars of equipment on it.

At the end of the 19th century the steam engine people laughed at the "bicycle and velocipede people" for thinking that they could make anything useful out of them and by 1886 they made a car with a small gas engine and by 1903 the bicycle folks were airborne.

ha! ha! Small boats and HUMINT...no way they can beat a carrier group.

The only way we can beat Iran is by nukes and we are not gonna do that so we might as well let them have it all.
And from thence they went to Beer....(Num 21:16)
English Bespoke Tailor New York City
Internet research and investigation
User avatar
Kurt
In Manus Manus
 
Posts: 19629
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 6:29 am
Location: New York City

Re: Iran is still winning

Postby nowonmai » Sun Sep 04, 2016 2:41 am

Kurt wrote:In spite of ROB's uber pissy mood for the last year or so, he is right with this


Easiest credit ever. Right click, copy, left click, paste. Like one of Obamaloid's speeches.
User avatar
nowonmai
BFCus Regularus
 
Posts: 11427
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 8:52 pm

Re: Iran is still winning

Postby Hitoru » Sun Sep 04, 2016 4:49 am

Like Obummer would say " Dividing Syria has been coupled with UN-sponsored ethnic cleansing, as evident in the evacuation of the Damascus suburb of Darayya, not of opposition fighters only, but of its native civilian population" .

I think bottom line is do we really want to fight Iran ? Perhaps a generational animosity shift will occur . I'm trying to remember the cadence, if I die on a Russian shore bury me with a Russian whore , if I die on Iranian beach ? Bury me...
What are you? Some short sighted trigger puller? - RR3 .
Mr.wRong.
User avatar
Hitoru
Arbol Basura
 
Posts: 3527
Joined: Tue Mar 20, 2007 8:49 pm
Location: Tejas

Re: Iran is still winning

Postby ROB » Sun Sep 04, 2016 10:08 am

Q wrote:Every time Iran sends its little fast boats out to harass US ships of the line, everyone laughs. You see it coming from the Pentagon, all the way down to the ankle biter blog writers. It's a big joke to them.

Well, it's clear the Iranians paid attention. We'll see who is laughing soon I'm guessing.


The concept of exceptionalism has been present in the fall of every powerful civilization. It is a cancer on any successful society.
User avatar
ROB
BFCus Regularus
 
Posts: 5001
Joined: Thu Mar 25, 2004 3:49 am

Re: Iran is still winning

Postby Q » Sun Sep 04, 2016 10:50 am

Hitoru wrote:Like Obummer would say " Dividing Syria has been coupled with UN-sponsored ethnic cleansing, as evident in the evacuation of the Damascus suburb of Darayya, not of opposition fighters only, but of its native civilian population" .

I think bottom line is do we really want to fight Iran ? Perhaps a generational animosity shift will occur . I'm trying to remember the cadence, if I die on a Russian shore bury me with a Russian whore , if I die on Iranian beach ? Bury me...



With a Persian peach?

I've heard the generational "thing" before. Still hasn't played out. It's my opinion that it hasn't because Iranians are very nationalistic. They might not dig the mullahs, but they sure as fuck aren't going to let a bunch of foreigners come in and change things. At least overtly.

Do you have siblings? I always fought tooth and nail with mine. But if an outsider posed a thread, we were a united front. Same concept.

If anything was going to change with at least foreign backing, it should have happened years ago during the protests. 2009 was a crack in the door and everyone ignored it.
I am the object of criticism around the world. But I think that since I am being discussed, then I am on the right track.

- The Dear Leader
User avatar
Q
Al-Aqua Teen Martyr's Brigade
 
Posts: 7820
Joined: Sat Mar 27, 2004 6:29 am
Location: Piss off

Re: Iran is still winning

Postby Q » Sun Sep 04, 2016 11:30 am

ROB wrote:
Q wrote:Every time Iran sends its little fast boats out to harass US ships of the line, everyone laughs. You see it coming from the Pentagon, all the way down to the ankle biter blog writers. It's a big joke to them.

Well, it's clear the Iranians paid attention. We'll see who is laughing soon I'm guessing.


The concept of exceptionalism has been present in the fall of every powerful civilization. It is a cancer on any successful society.



While I agree with you on the hubris, that's the easy answer. There's a deeper rot going on in the West, especially in its militaries.

This situation with Iran is bad, and it's been ignored or toyed with for far too long. Considering they could shut down the Strait of Hormuz in minutes, "global implications" takes on a whole new meaning.

Salvage/mine clearing takes weeks, if not months, under ideal conditions. Imagine how long it would take during less than ideal.
I am the object of criticism around the world. But I think that since I am being discussed, then I am on the right track.

- The Dear Leader
User avatar
Q
Al-Aqua Teen Martyr's Brigade
 
Posts: 7820
Joined: Sat Mar 27, 2004 6:29 am
Location: Piss off

Re: Iran is still winning

Postby ReptilianKittenEater » Sun Sep 04, 2016 12:40 pm

Q wrote:It's my opinion that it hasn't because Iranians are very nationalistic. They might not dig the mullahs, but they sure as fuck aren't going to let a bunch of foreigners come in and change things. At least overtly.


Nailed it.
User avatar
ReptilianKittenEater
BFCus Regularus
 
Posts: 2821
Joined: Thu Mar 25, 2004 3:18 am
Location: St. Catharines, ON, Canada

Re: Iran is still winning

Postby Q » Sun Sep 04, 2016 1:11 pm

ReptilianKittenEater wrote:
Q wrote:It's my opinion that it hasn't because Iranians are very nationalistic. They might not dig the mullahs, but they sure as fuck aren't going to let a bunch of foreigners come in and change things. At least overtly.


Nailed it.



So, this brings us back to the beginning. How do we handle it?

Personally, I'm for the "Q's sure fire way of getting laid" approach. Girls/women love to be ignored. Just as much as guys like being chased. Don't get me wrong, I love petting the sweaty stuff as much as the next horn dog, but honestly, if a night out doesn't end in me having some serious regret and fear of, "shit, did I wrap it?", it's not the end of the world.

It's been my experience that women home in on this. Call it being aloof, whatever. End result is the same. No care = it served up on a platter.


So.......foreign policy wise, do we have our Stoli and soda all night, and not give a fuck about the pot o gold at the end of the rainbow? Give out our mobile number, and then, "eh....I'm off to drink with the boys. Maybe we'll chat later" and let things go from there?



Pussy....politics.....it's all the same, really.


Q enters bar. Mates aren't there yet, so he sits and focuses on his Stoli. Overhears Persian princess bitching about the outfit the Jewish American princess in her wide circle wore the other night. Oh. Mai. God.

Q works his way into conversation. Feigns interest. Talks about opposition to the Great Satan. Loving dark hair and shitty Perisan music.

Kurt, Now and Rob stumble in.

Q says later, time to really drink. Persian is dejected, but numbers are still exchanged.

More drinking. Now and Rob start getting pushy with each other, while Kurt is too busy to notice because he's brushing the lint of his beaver felt top hat.

Q notices and chats up a Kurdish girl,knowing the Perisan is watching him.

Q and crew get kicked out.


Next morning. 3 texts from a Tehran area code.

Are you ok?
What happened?!
Who was that girl?
Plz respond.
Here's a cute meme of a kitten.
Plz respond.




4 days later. Q texts back: Who is this?



The gates open.



~Fin
I am the object of criticism around the world. But I think that since I am being discussed, then I am on the right track.

- The Dear Leader
User avatar
Q
Al-Aqua Teen Martyr's Brigade
 
Posts: 7820
Joined: Sat Mar 27, 2004 6:29 am
Location: Piss off

Re: Iran is still winning

Postby nowonmai » Sun Sep 04, 2016 2:06 pm



I might not like the pricks who run the place (UK and US) but I'll take them over the Mad Mullahs and Kleptocrats in the Kremlin any day. The second biggest problem we will have in future conflict will be domestic social cohesion as fifth columnists run riot. But in war of survival you can expect that our domestic policing would become rather more muscular than at present. Then we would just have to deal with the armour and rockets that these little shits would throw at us. I dont buy all this Little Green Man crap in serious conflict; that asymmetric approach only works when they can remain below out response threshold. Come Total War 2019, the behind the liners will just be executed or interned. So all in all, come Christmas 2179, I would bet they'll we'll be still celebrating Santa Claus rather than watching re-runs of Khomeini's speeches. If Iran has stucj with the mullahs until then, well then we can conclude they deserve the government they get. Just like 'we' deserve pricks like Cameron, Merkel, Obama and, God Help Us, Walking Dead II (Clinton). Trump is an anomaly and like all statistical outliers it is too early to say if it is a trend or not. And no one really knows what the fuck he is. We'll only know that at least four years after his Presidency is over, if he gets inand however that ends. Personally if he does get in I think some crazy left or BLM cunt will have a pop at him - to great applause from so-called Liberals. God knows why he is putting himself in those sights. I'd just be doing my hobby of choice if I were him. But that's why I'm a gimp nobody on the internet and he is fast approaching the most famous man on the planet (wouldnt wish that on anyone).

Anyway, Happy Sunday all, wherever you are whatever you're doing.
User avatar
nowonmai
BFCus Regularus
 
Posts: 11427
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 8:52 pm

Re: Iran is still winning

Postby nowonmai » Sun Sep 04, 2016 2:14 pm

ROB wrote:
Q wrote:Every time Iran sends its little fast boats out to harass US ships of the line, everyone laughs. You see it coming from the Pentagon, all the way down to the ankle biter blog writers. It's a big joke to them.

Well, it's clear the Iranians paid attention. We'll see who is laughing soon I'm guessing.


The concept of exceptionalism has been present in the fall of every powerful civilization. It is a cancer on any successful society.


Sounds like PC bullshit to me. Perhaps you don't get a powerful civilization without exceptionalism. Let's face it, civilisations don't expand their influence by minding their Ps and Qs. So the fact that it is there at the end may not be a relevant factor. Maybe the real problem is declining exceptionalism. ie. decadence.
User avatar
nowonmai
BFCus Regularus
 
Posts: 11427
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 8:52 pm

Re: Iran is still winning

Postby ROB » Mon Sep 05, 2016 7:12 am

nowonmai wrote:Sounds like PC bullshit to me. Perhaps you don't get a powerful civilization without exceptionalism. Let's face it, civilisations don't expand their influence by minding their Ps and Qs. So the fact that it is there at the end may not be a relevant factor.


Somebody didn't bother Googling.

Maybe the real problem is declining exceptionalism. ie. decadence.


...said every half assed thinker ever.
User avatar
ROB
BFCus Regularus
 
Posts: 5001
Joined: Thu Mar 25, 2004 3:49 am

Re: Iran is still winning

Postby MJK » Mon Sep 05, 2016 8:11 am

Decadence does usually rear its head during the runup to empirical collapse; so what is half assed about pointing it out? What would Google be saying about this that has eluded us so far?
User avatar
MJK
BFCus Regularus
 
Posts: 1233
Joined: Thu Mar 25, 2004 2:59 am
Location: Fairbanks

Next

Return to Black Flag Cafe

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 3 guests

cron