How is lockdown working where you are?

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Re: How is lockdown working where you are?

Postby snaark » Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:47 pm

Tarkan wrote:I know I've discounted Sars-COV-2 in other threads, but there's some real reasons to be concerned about the long term progression of the pandemic.

It infects ACE2 receptors. It attacks the lungs, the kidneys, the liver, the brain. Many survivors of the more severe cases are left with permanent damage (reduced mental capacity, reduced lung capacity) or debilitating effects potentially years (if SARS is anything to go by, at least). People are asymptomatic spreaders for days after being infected. The antibody titer decays fast, which means you may get it in winter, and get it again in summer or fall. Without mutation. Some people are killed through cytokine storms (strong immune response), some people are killed by the disease itself.

There's the possibility this will become endemic, without a vaccine, and sweep through the population culling 20% of the people over 70, year after year.

It could very easily mutate into a more deadly form. Because it's an RNA retrovirus, it's going to be very mutation prone.

Almost all of that is true, but it doesn't seem to be very mutation prone - actually compared to influenza it mutates very slowly. But as you pointed out, this may not even matter.
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Re: How is lockdown working where you are?

Postby sparrow » Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:40 pm

Kurt wrote:
Bet you guys are glad Trudeau and Co. is preventing fat, stupid disease bags from coming up there for a bit, huh?

For now, yes.
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Re: How is lockdown working where you are?

Postby babihutan » Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:24 pm

sparrow wrote:
Kurt wrote:
Bet you guys are glad Trudeau and Co. is preventing fat, stupid disease bags from coming up there for a bit, huh?

For now, yes.

I’m so bummed out by that decision, I’ve decided to cross a closed Canada/US border from Canada INTO the US, endure a 4-phase interrogation at the border and WITH my family. I made it into God’s country and we roam wild and free spreading Canadian propaganda.

Tarkan wrote:
Kurt wrote:Texas seems to be where NY was in Mid April. NYC is crowded and sometimes you have places where 6 people live in a 1 bedroom apartment.

Italy is the same way. We picture Italian villas but many Italian houses and apartments resemble a clown car, but with better food and clothes.

So if Trump, Like Cuomo, screwed up initially, does that mean he is doing better now at containing the virus?

Is there really evidence the economy is not hit in the long run when we face a percentage death rate? If so, what?

Also, if I were to use an example of Open Vs. Closed I would use California's rising rate of infection Vs. Whomever is open. NY State has been managed fairly well with very little help from the Feds, and in fact we had a Navy Hospital ship that no one could figure out how to get admitted to and they would not take non-covid emergency cases...which would have helped existing Hospitals.

Also another long term fuck up was Bloomberg and Cuomo presided over the shutting down of 3 hospitals in the NYC area, one of which was turned into Luxury West Village Rentals. Not smart to get rid of Hospitals in favor of Real Estate interests.

The fuck-ups at the Federal level go back to the Obama administration - Bush became convinced that a pandemic was going to happen so began a stockpiling program, which the Obama admin liquidated (no, I'm not blaming Obama). CDC then had their budget cut under Trump. WHO became the lackey running dogs of China, so while China was welding people shut in apartment buildings and bulldozing roads so people couldn't enter or leave impacted cities, WHO was saying person to person transmission for Sars-COV-2 was still infrequent and China had it under control. China's official death count is almost certainly 2-3 orders of magnitude under reality. Back in late Feb, a chart floating around showing China mobile subscribers over the past 24 months showed continuous growth until December, then there was a 6 or 7 million decline (cumulative) in subscribers through January.

Italy tends to not do so well with the flu either. Their death rates tend to be higher than the US. Stands to reason, they have the 2nd oldest population in the world, next to Japan, and flu and covid hits old people particularly hard, absent any other considerations like policy / health care systems.

From an epidemiology point of view, the chance to contain this left the barn in January, maybe even December. Plenty of evidence that it was community spread (endemic) in Seattle area by end of January. Containment measures like lockdowns, masks, are attempts to lower the R0 in order to "flatten the curve" so the medical system doesn't collapse, but it won't eradicate the transmission of Sars-COV-2. We are long past that tipping point. The only thing that stops this is: herd immunity (and people have to catch it for the society to develop herd immunity), or a vaccine, which is still months away. I told my wife back in February that this will go pandemic, we'll probably catch it, and we'll probably be fine, but maybe not. You make your choices and take your chances. If the CFR was 3-5% I'd be a little less nonchalant, but with a CFR of 0.6% - it's concerning, but not end of the world kind of thing. The Black Plague killed 1/3 of the European population. And for the record, I was exposed 8 days ago - little Father's day get together, my brother in law's wife's brother came to visit my brother in law, tested positive on Tuesday, brother in law and his wife are now both symptomatic, test results still pending). My family is asymptomatic, and I think we are in the clear since it's been 8 days, but you never know (I also think we had it back in early March when we went to Disney right before it shut down, or earlier in Feb when I was traveling for work, or late January when one of my coworkers returned from Spring Festival in Wuhan). Despite being an early believer back in January, but mid-April I was Wuflu fatigued out and stopped wearing a mask. Fuck it. Herd immunity doesn't happen by itself.

I’ve been tracking this virus since middish January and have been very surprised by the lack of foresight by most people and countries. That was smart of you to get out of the stock market then! I was watching it continually rise to new heights while scratching my head.

And as for government numbers of virus cases, it’s all bullshit. Whatever the official number of cases are, multiply that multifold. This in turn would mean that the actual death rate would also be much lower than stated. I’ve also been hearing that most hospitals count Covid as the cause of death even for people who die of x number of diseases but happen to test positive for Covid.
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Postby el3so » Fri Jul 10, 2020 10:01 pm

Mandatory masks from tomorrow onward in shops, public areas and wherever. Guess all this sh!t 'll last a bit longer...

Can't complain.
PM me your negative COVID-19 test results
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Re: How is lockdown working where you are?

Postby MJK » Sat Jul 11, 2020 1:46 am

Let's see how everybody feels about masks in a year or so when we are still stuck with them. By then, those who decide such things will be pushing the boundaries and masks will be required for cave divers who can't social distance and airlines will be retrofitting aircraft passenger emergency masks with big baggies you pull over your head first, then your child's. Meanwhile everyone with "It's not a mask, it's love" on their rash bordered lips should clip on a pulse oximeter and watch their blood oxygen plummet to below 80%. Oxygenating your blood and venting waste gases is so selfish. Be a trend setter and out virtue signal everyone else by posting the lowest blood oxygen levels ever recorded. When your rosacea transitions to gangrene it will prove your love for your fellow man and get you mucho likes. Don't stop at driving alone with your windows up and a mask on; shop for toothpaste with the highest fluoride content. Spray Roundup directly on your bread, some of it might have washed off during refining.

It's like Pier Paolo Pasolini and Quentin Tarantino are taking turns directing the end of the world between spliffs of spice and rails of ketamine while the people I care about are indignant that I won't join them in a cameo in this fucking nightmare.
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