Biden’s Chances Compared to Hillary’s

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Biden’s Chances Compared to Hillary’s

Postby ROB » Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:12 pm

Today Biden is at 87% chance to win according to FiveThirtyEight.

On this day in 2016, FiveThirtyEight gave Hillary 88% chance of winning.

https://twitter.com/frankba/status/1316 ... 64353?s=21
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Re: Biden’s Chances Compared to Hillary’s

Postby Kurt » Thu Oct 15, 2020 1:13 pm

The Polls say the Polls are different this time.

If Trump was smart, and he isn't, he would be campaigning on how the economy was pre-covid.

If Biden were smart, and he isn', he would be campaigning on how you can still restrict immigration, H1B visas and fight outsourcing of jobs without forced sterilizations and separation of families.
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Re: Biden’s Chances Compared to Hillary’s

Postby ROB » Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:10 am

Kurt wrote:The Polls say the Polls are different this time.


Yup. And I think a lot of us remain somewhat sceptical.
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Re: Biden’s Chances Compared to Hillary’s

Postby Tarkan » Mon Oct 19, 2020 3:12 am

The polls in 2016 oversampled Democrats significantly, treating 2008 and 2012 turnouts as electoral transformations (and thus permanent).

Some polls are also intentionally misleading and part of campaign disinformation designed to depress voters turnout (Trump and the GOP are going to lose in a landslide, not even worth turning up to vote).

Part of it is that the shy Trump voter exists. Given the degree to which the left has targeted Trump supporters with vandalism, violent attacks, doxxing, harassment, etc, a lot of people will not be honest and forthright when pollsters call and ask who they plan on voting for. How many of these people exist and how many are in battleground states is they key question. But Trump outperformed the final pre-election polls by around 4% in the actual election in states like MI and PA. I expect Trump to do better than 2016 with a lot of minority groups (including, oddly, Latinos), and worse with white suburban women.

Given the anemic attendance at Biden rallies, one has to wonder how many of his supposed supporters will actually show up and vote.
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Re: Biden’s Chances Compared to Hillary’s

Postby Ozymandias » Mon Oct 19, 2020 5:17 pm

Biden's levels of absolute support in the swing states two weeks out are much higher than Hillary Clinton's were in the same timeframe.

Here's where Biden + Trump are now: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/19/us-election-polls-tracker-who-is-leading-in-the-swing-states

For some context, Biden is 6.8% up on where Hillary was in Arizona in 2016, 2.7% up in Florida, 4.9% up in Wisconsin. Similar leads in IA, MI, NC, NH, NV & PA.

It would take the biggest polling error in the modern history of US election polling errors (much bigger than in 2016 or even the biggest swing in history in 1948) to erase Biden's 10 or 11 point lead and hand Trump the win. Not saying it cannot happen, but 2020 is not 2016. The Economist even did a good analysis on the "shy Trump voter" and concluded that: "It would take a massive polling error—considerably larger than in 2016—for Mr Trump to pull off an upset victory again. Partisan non-response bias could account for some of the gap the president needs to make up, but nowhere near all of it." https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/10/11/the-race-for-the-white-house-is-a-little-closer-than-it-looks
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Re: Biden’s Chances Compared to Hillary’s

Postby Kurt » Mon Oct 19, 2020 5:40 pm

In 2016 I knew the "Shy Trump Voter" types. They were Liberals who got fucked out of a job multiple times. They were H1-B-ed, then they were outsourced, then they got rejected from jobs for being too "overqualified".

Trump said he was going to bring jobs back but without giving a plan, Hillary gave a speech to Goldman Sachs that was recorded in which she basically said that the plan for coninued globalisation of the US labor market would continue and there was a very specific plan on doing this (Not checking to see if H1B jobs were really because of unqualified US applicants ...etc. etc.).

So the choice was to vote for a person who promised to fuck you or vote for a person who promised not to fuck you but instead fuck other people....and both people were horrible in their own way.

People were "shy" about voting for Trump because he is one hell of a shitty dude.

Now I suspect that most shy voters for Trump are probably really closeted Nazis instead of someone who just wanted a chance not to get fucked over by their own country by voting for a rude conman.

But as my wife told me the other day "You refuse to admit just how shitty Americans can be be" and her theory is that secret Trump voters exist in droves and they will cause Biden to lose the election. She thinks given a chance to vote for Death Vs. Life they will always vote for death out of hope Death does not mean themselves.
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Re: Biden’s Chances Compared to Hillary’s

Postby Tarkan » Tue Oct 20, 2020 3:18 am

Americans aren’t shitty, the Democratic party is shitty. Two election cycles in a row they’ve posted up about the worst fucking candidate they could find. Hillary I can sort of understand because she’ll have you murdered and most of the Democrats owed her in some way. But she was a shitty candidate.

Biden likewise...sucks. He’s corrupt as hell - which should be pretty obvious. He’s old and dementia addled. He likes molesting girls on camera and is apparently a little rapey with other women as well, his surviving son is a train wreck of epic proportions, a blackmail case waiting to happen and a fastball away from overdosing...and this is what the Democrats offer America.

I’m sure just as many people won’t be voting Biden as much as voting for Trump - you can bet that many Trump voters will voting against Biden and not for Trump.
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Re: Biden’s Chances Compared to Hillary’s

Postby Alphabet » Tue Oct 20, 2020 3:30 am

They'll just keep having dinner together at their private clubs after they get done yelling at each other on Fox or MSNBC.


While we pay for it.
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Re: Biden’s Chances Compared to Hillary’s

Postby Tarkan » Tue Oct 20, 2020 3:31 am

Ozymandias wrote:Biden's levels of absolute support in the swing states two weeks out are much higher than Hillary Clinton's were in the same timeframe.

Here's where Biden + Trump are now: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/19/us-election-polls-tracker-who-is-leading-in-the-swing-states

For some context, Biden is 6.8% up on where Hillary was in Arizona in 2016, 2.7% up in Florida, 4.9% up in Wisconsin. Similar leads in IA, MI, NC, NH, NV & PA.

It would take the biggest polling error in the modern history of US election polling errors (much bigger than in 2016 or even the biggest swing in history in 1948) to erase Biden's 10 or 11 point lead and hand Trump the win. Not saying it cannot happen, but 2020 is not 2016. The Economist even did a good analysis on the "shy Trump voter" and concluded that: "It would take a massive polling error—considerably larger than in 2016—for Mr Trump to pull off an upset victory again. Partisan non-response bias could account for some of the gap the president needs to make up, but nowhere near all of it." https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/10/11/the-race-for-the-white-house-is-a-little-closer-than-it-looks


Ozy...the Guardian isn’t exactly a reliable source.

Some counters:

https://mobile.twitter.com/MDProgressiv ... wsrc%5Etfw

Michigan early voting returns show Biden and Trump neck and neck. Early voting favors Dems

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbsnew ... arrow-gap/

GOP had narrowed voter registration gap in battleground states. In several states the GOP registered 2x as many new voters as Dems did. New voter registrations are highly correlated with electoral success.

Not sayinf Trump is going to win - but the polls are off. Its going to be much closer than the polls suggest.

And oh, if Biden wins and the Democrats sweep, the market is going go shit the bed.
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Re: Biden’s Chances Compared to Hillary’s

Postby ROB » Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:38 am

Tarkan wrote:He’s corrupt as hell - which should be pretty obvious. He’s old and dementia addled. He likes molesting girls on camera and is apparently a little rapey with other women as well, his surviving son is a train wreck of epic proportions, a blackmail case waiting to happen and a fastball away from overdosing...and this is what the Democrats offer America.


Peak self-awareness there, Tarks.
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Re: Biden’s Chances Compared to Hillary’s

Postby Tarkan » Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:56 am

Rob I’m pretty self aware.

The Democrats answer to Trump was to nominate their older less mentally sound version of Trump.
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Re: Biden’s Chances Compared to Hillary’s

Postby Ozymandias » Tue Oct 20, 2020 6:28 am

Tarkan wrote:
Ozymandias wrote:Biden's levels of absolute support in the swing states two weeks out are much higher than Hillary Clinton's were in the same timeframe.

Here's where Biden + Trump are now: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/19/us-election-polls-tracker-who-is-leading-in-the-swing-states

For some context, Biden is 6.8% up on where Hillary was in Arizona in 2016, 2.7% up in Florida, 4.9% up in Wisconsin. Similar leads in IA, MI, NC, NH, NV & PA.

It would take the biggest polling error in the modern history of US election polling errors (much bigger than in 2016 or even the biggest swing in history in 1948) to erase Biden's 10 or 11 point lead and hand Trump the win. Not saying it cannot happen, but 2020 is not 2016. The Economist even did a good analysis on the "shy Trump voter" and concluded that: "It would take a massive polling error—considerably larger than in 2016—for Mr Trump to pull off an upset victory again. Partisan non-response bias could account for some of the gap the president needs to make up, but nowhere near all of it." https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/10/11/the-race-for-the-white-house-is-a-little-closer-than-it-looks


Ozy...the Guardian isn’t exactly a reliable source.

Some counters:

https://mobile.twitter.com/MDProgressiv ... wsrc%5Etfw

Michigan early voting returns show Biden and Trump neck and neck. Early voting favors Dems

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbsnew ... arrow-gap/

GOP had narrowed voter registration gap in battleground states. In several states the GOP registered 2x as many new voters as Dems did. New voter registrations are highly correlated with electoral success.

Not sayinf Trump is going to win - but the polls are off. Its going to be much closer than the polls suggest.

And oh, if Biden wins and the Democrats sweep, the market is going go shit the bed.


I agree Tarkan that Biden is a poor candidate, and shows that the Democrats learned little from their 2016 defeat. Sad we didn't see a more progressive candidate on the ticket.

Lots to discuss here, but want to focus on one statement: "The Guardian isn’t exactly a reliable source". Why not? Please provide some evidence to support this claim.

The Guardian article is pretty clear on their methodology: "Each day, the Guardian’s poll tracker takes a rolling 14-day average of the polls in ​eight swing states." So are all the underlying polls not exactly a reliable source? Or is the methodology in how the Guardian are interpreting these underlying polls problematic? It seems that you agree with the Guardian's interpretation that "We must caution that the polls – particularly some swing state polls – severely undercounted Trump supporters in 2016. We are not certain, despite assurances, that they they have corrected this​. Additionally, they may be over-counting Democratic support (more people may say they will vote for Biden than actually turn out). We present the latest polls with those caveats to be borne in mind."
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Postby el3so » Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:54 pm

Ol white man vs other older white man. Democrats still seem clueless.
Ozymandias wrote: Lots to discuss here, but want to focus on one statement: "The Guardian isn’t exactly a reliable source". Why not? Please provide some evidence to support this claim.
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Re: Biden’s Chances Compared to Hillary’s

Postby Kurt » Thu Oct 22, 2020 2:44 pm

Most of the Guardian's unreliable stories were centered around UK based news like Brexit and things like how many people in the UK were vegan (they overstated!...the horror!)

Their opinion pieces on the US tend to be stuff like "The USA is the CIA and the CIA is bad so the USA is bad" which leads to really tiresome conversations when, as a US citizen, visiting the UK you get stuff like "Did you know that the CIA did _____________" and then when the the US is involved in some stupid foreign war they say "That's wrong!" or "That's right but you are doing it wrong!" or if we are not involved in the stupid foreign war they say "Where is the USA, if they cared they would help" but if we "helped" we would get another opinion piece about how we are "doing it wrong"

So we Americans actually have a pretty good reason to be skeptical of the Guardian. But they tend to get it right when it is something like a foreign, meaning our, election. They can editorialize against Trump for their UK audience but they really do not have the same reason to try to pretend a poll says one thing when it does not for US politics, hoping that will influence the election. Because any US citizen who reads the Guardian is not voting for Trump anyway.

When Obama won in 2008 the Guardian congratulated the US for making a "Civilized choice" but you can tell it sort of pissed them off that their fat, stupid cousins did something that they could not get all if a lather about.
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Re: Biden’s Chances Compared to Hillary’s

Postby seektravelinfo » Thu Oct 22, 2020 2:58 pm

[quote="Kurt"]
When Obama won in 2008 the Guardian congratulated the US for making a "Civilized choice" but you can tell it sort of pissed them off that their fat, stupid cousins did something that they could not get all if a lather about.[/quote]


Welp, jokes on them and their Brexit idiocy, and their Boris Johnson running around making a point of kissing babies for herd immunity at the start of the pandemic. But then HE quickly caught it and to his credit sang a different song once he left the ICU, I give him that.

The Guardian is an okay newspaper, but just okay. They’ve got a pitiful arts section, and living section, leading one to think that Americans are much more cool and fun than the Brits. Except for these British actors that play Americans so well. I’ve watched The Trial of the Chicago Seven 3 times already for the masterful and show-stopping work of that guy playing William Kunstler.
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