Biden’s Chances Compared to Hillary’s

[rickshaw92]

Im looking forward to The Donald winning. The utter chaos that will ensue will be entertaining to watch indeed. I would imagine a protest in Central London if it happens with the flakes of snow out in droves. Would be fun to watch and I have to go into Central London tomorrow anyway for pre lockdown drinks anyway.


USA USA USA!

[babihutan]

I think all the failed predictions here need to be printed out and eaten by the people that make them after they prove wrong

I said it first.....Trump aint goin nowhere. He has promised us all to make America great again, and he has yet to deliver.

[rickshaw92]

Sniveling little shit cunts are already starting to kick off down the road from the White House. Say this shit is gonna go on for weeks. Must be nice to not hafta work.

[rickshaw92]

https://mol.im/a/8911151

[ROB]

The Polls say the Polls are different this time.

Yup. And I think a lot of us remain somewhat sceptical.

Just bumping this for good measure.

[denise]

Looks like they are about the same if you follow the WSJ so go ahead and enjoy your celebration Mr. Shaw. My son has asked that I not lock the doors tonight as he doesn't want to be in the city when it comes down in the same way I didn't want my daughter down there if Obama hadn't won it.

[snaark]

Seriously, what have you got against punctuation?

[denise]

nothing really more thae a struggle with sentence structure although I can spell like a.

[gnaruki]

Reminds me of Timothy Dexter https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timothy_Dexter

The book contained 8,847 words and 33,864 letters, but without punctuation and with seemingly random capitalization. Dexter initially handed his book out for free, but it became popular and was reprinted eight times.[2] In the second edition, Dexter added an extra page which consisted of 11 lines of punctuation marks with the instructions that readers could distribute them as they pleased.[

[denise]

maybe more of a reader than a writer more about understanding less about being understood but then there comes a time when its less about taking in and more about spitting it out.

[denise]

Reminds me of Timothy Dexter https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timothy_Dexter

The book contained 8,847 words and 33,864 letters, but without punctuation and with seemingly random capitalization. Dexter initially handed his book out for free, but it became popular and was reprinted eight times.[2] In the second edition, Dexter added an extra page which consisted of 11 lines of punctuation marks with the instructions that readers could distribute them as they pleased.[

wait I love this dude thanks for the suggestion/comparison.

[Kurt]

man, my call on Texas for Biden and Pennsylvania for Trump was wayyyy off.

Anyway, I hope Trump keeps trying to sue his way back in. That and golf should keep him distracted enough so he won't do any real damage.

Four Seasons Total Landscaping:

My god, I loved that.

[mb]

Four Seasons Total Landscaping:

My god, I loved that.

Great writeup : https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 99962.html


I wonder how many militia marches there are? At least one I've heard of in Harrisburg though it eventually dissipated.

[ROB]

Anyway, I hope Trump keeps trying to sue his way back in.

Nobody should have a problem with that. If somebody suspects shenanigans, it's exactly how it should work.

[Ozymandias]

Biden's levels of absolute support in the swing states two weeks out are much higher than Hillary Clinton's were in the same timeframe.

Here's where Biden + Trump are now: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/19/us-election-polls-tracker-who-is-leading-in-the-swing-states

For some context, Biden is 6.8% up on where Hillary was in Arizona in 2016, 2.7% up in Florida, 4.9% up in Wisconsin. Similar leads in IA, MI, NC, NH, NV & PA.

It would take the biggest polling error in the modern history of US election polling errors (much bigger than in 2016 or even the biggest swing in history in 1948) to erase Biden's 10 or 11 point lead and hand Trump the win. Not saying it cannot happen, but 2020 is not 2016. The Economist even did a good analysis on the "shy Trump voter" and concluded that: "It would take a massive polling error—considerably larger than in 2016—for Mr Trump to pull off an upset victory again. Partisan non-response bias could account for some of the gap the president needs to make up, but nowhere near all of it." https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/10/11/the-race-for-the-white-house-is-a-little-closer-than-it-looks

So the polls were off again, but predictably so and no worse than they were in 2016. The difference this time was that Biden had such a significant lead in so many swing states that he could survive a 2-3 point polling error. Polls were right in that he will take Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, New Hampshire, Nevada, & Pennsylvania (pending Trump's attempts to disenfranchise for the win). Polls were wrong in predicting Iowa / Florida / North Carolina wins for Biden, but nothing outrageously outside the 2016 margin of error.

Glad we can now all agree that The Guardian's aggregated polling data was accurate, their methodology was sound, and that The Guardian is a reliable, unbiased source for aggregated polling data (leaving aside what we think about their political coverage)!