Biden’s Chances Compared to Hillary’s

[Ozymandias]

Anyway, I hope Trump keeps trying to sue his way back in.

Nobody should have a problem with that. If somebody suspects shenanigans, it's exactly how it should work.

Agreed. Sue away. Although worrying that commentators seem to be fixating specifically on taking it to "their" nominee Amy Coney Barrett to get this sorted out, which is not how the US legal system works...

[Kurt]

Anyway, I hope Trump keeps trying to sue his way back in.

Nobody should have a problem with that. If somebody suspects shenanigans, it's exactly how it should work.

Agreed. Sue away. Although worrying that commentators seem to be fixating specifically on taking it to "their" nominee Amy Coney Barrett to get this sorted out, which is not how the US legal system works...

ACB now, owes Trump nothing. That is how The Supreme Court was set up, so no one could say "hey, I got you your job"

So she can choose to do the only thing that could possibly jeopardize her sweet, sweet deal as one of the only graduates Rhodes Law School and Grill to make it to any court at all...Or she can sit there and collect a check for perhaps 50 years while just being conservative and weird.

Also, the Trump "Court" (in the traditional royal court sense) is two things:

1. Criminal

2. Incompetent

Criminals do tasks for money or because of fear. They will pretend it is for a thing like loyalty since organized criminals need to have independent rules that they use to function outside of the law. A perfect example is Michael Cohen. Gets paid, will do anything for Trump. Until he is more afraid of prosecutors, then he flips. Sees more money to be maid as a Trump critic than a Trump fixer. Still a criminal, still greedy but he was more afraid of the Feds than he was of Trump so he bailed and took a plea.

The incompetent blends with the criminal. Like those buses that caused people to suffer exposure because they just picked up people for a rally and did not return them. Could have just been an idiot only planned a one way trip...on 3 different occasions or someone was contracted for round trip bus rides to and from rallies and then they subcontracted for one-way rides knowing Trump would never fire them if people showed up but would never care if they did not return and pocketed the remainder.
Brad Parscale also blended the incompetent and the criminal. I suspect he will be investigated but not arrested for misappropriation of Trump campaign funds. He will have set up a contract that pretty much permitted him to bill for everything and no one would have noticed because so many made so many similar arrangements. In fact the Trump Organization will profit if the campaign is solvent since Trump only loaned money...with interest...to his own campaign rather than do something stupid like donate to himself. Then he can claim a loss on his taxes if it is not paid back.

So basically Trump is relying on incompetent people or criminals to prop him up and they are either going to fail naturally or bail intentionally.
It should be fun to watch.

[Tarkan]

Biden's levels of absolute support in the swing states two weeks out are much higher than Hillary Clinton's were in the same timeframe.

Here's where Biden + Trump are now: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/19/us-election-polls-tracker-who-is-leading-in-the-swing-states

For some context, Biden is 6.8% up on where Hillary was in Arizona in 2016, 2.7% up in Florida, 4.9% up in Wisconsin. Similar leads in IA, MI, NC, NH, NV & PA.

It would take the biggest polling error in the modern history of US election polling errors (much bigger than in 2016 or even the biggest swing in history in 1948) to erase Biden's 10 or 11 point lead and hand Trump the win. Not saying it cannot happen, but 2020 is not 2016. The Economist even did a good analysis on the "shy Trump voter" and concluded that: "It would take a massive polling error—considerably larger than in 2016—for Mr Trump to pull off an upset victory again. Partisan non-response bias could account for some of the gap the president needs to make up, but nowhere near all of it." https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/10/11/the-race-for-the-white-house-is-a-little-closer-than-it-looks

So the polls were off again, but predictably so and no worse than they were in 2016. The difference this time was that Biden had such a significant lead in so many swing states that he could survive a 2-3 point polling error. Polls were right in that he will take Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, New Hampshire, Nevada, & Pennsylvania (pending Trump's attempts to disenfranchise for the win). Polls were wrong in predicting Iowa / Florida / North Carolina wins for Biden, but nothing outrageously outside the 2016 margin of error.

Glad we can now all agree that The Guardian's aggregated polling data was accurate, their methodology was sound, and that The Guardian is a reliable, unbiased source for aggregated polling data (leaving aside what we think about their political coverage)!

LOL. ABCNews / Monmouth had Wisconsin as +17 Biden.

In key battleground states, several of the *aggregate* polls were skewed past the supposed margin of error.

OH. Polls: T+1, A: T+8.2 (7.2 bias to Biden)
WI. Polls: B+6.7, A: B+0.7 (6 bias to Biden)
MI. Polls: B+4.2, A: B+2.7 (1.5 bias to Biden)
NC. Polls: T+1, A: T+3.7 (2.7 bias to Biden)
TX. Polls: T+1.3, A: T+5.8 (4.5 bias to Biden)
PA. Polls: B+1.2, A: B:+0.65 (0.55 bias to Biden)
GA: Polls: T+1.0, A: B:+0.2 (1.2 bias to Trump)

In any event, Benford analysis and general shenanigans in Wayne County (Detroit), Philadelphia, and Atlanta - states where Trump had a commanding lead at 10 PM on Tuesday night, but magically generated enough votes out of those counties to flip the election.

[Kurt]

In 2022, if honest work has failed me I think I will start a "AI Based Polling Company" with a "proprietary algorithm"

It would basically be me making predictions based on either "nothing" , my own bias or "stuff I read about that seemed popular".

It would just be me typing shit after I hired a PR firm to convince people I was not just typing shit.

btw the "Algorithms" used by all tech companies and some finance companies start from the desired results backwards.

Uber wanted drivers and they wanted drivers to take out loans for cars from them so write a pay algorithm that would encourage people to quit their jobs, buy a car and drive for Uber.

I take cabs alot and one guy I talked to said when he first started driving for Uber he made $90k per year on 30 hours per week (if he drove at night). Then they changed the algorithm a few times and now he makes about $30k per year working 60 hours a week.

Poll do the same thing.

The person who called the results closest was Michael Moore. He said the polls were 6 points skewed towards Biden and that put Biden within the lead with the margin of error that could still favor Trump.

I figure a shitty Poll company that employed people from all political spectrums would probably be a better way to eliminate bias. You just have people saying stuff based on nothing and then combine what they say for a number. If you took people skewed towards Trump but those who based nothing on any real data but the desire to appear not totally skewed toward Trump and combined it with Pro-Biden numbers would have probably gotten a more accurate result.

[Ozymandias]

Biden's levels of absolute support in the swing states two weeks out are much higher than Hillary Clinton's were in the same timeframe.

Here's where Biden + Trump are now: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/19/us-election-polls-tracker-who-is-leading-in-the-swing-states

For some context, Biden is 6.8% up on where Hillary was in Arizona in 2016, 2.7% up in Florida, 4.9% up in Wisconsin. Similar leads in IA, MI, NC, NH, NV & PA.

It would take the biggest polling error in the modern history of US election polling errors (much bigger than in 2016 or even the biggest swing in history in 1948) to erase Biden's 10 or 11 point lead and hand Trump the win. Not saying it cannot happen, but 2020 is not 2016. The Economist even did a good analysis on the "shy Trump voter" and concluded that: "It would take a massive polling error—considerably larger than in 2016—for Mr Trump to pull off an upset victory again. Partisan non-response bias could account for some of the gap the president needs to make up, but nowhere near all of it." https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/10/11/the-race-for-the-white-house-is-a-little-closer-than-it-looks

So the polls were off again, but predictably so and no worse than they were in 2016. The difference this time was that Biden had such a significant lead in so many swing states that he could survive a 2-3 point polling error. Polls were right in that he will take Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, New Hampshire, Nevada, & Pennsylvania (pending Trump's attempts to disenfranchise for the win). Polls were wrong in predicting Iowa / Florida / North Carolina wins for Biden, but nothing outrageously outside the 2016 margin of error.

Glad we can now all agree that The Guardian's aggregated polling data was accurate, their methodology was sound, and that The Guardian is a reliable, unbiased source for aggregated polling data (leaving aside what we think about their political coverage)!

LOL. ABCNews / Monmouth had Wisconsin as +17 Biden.

In key battleground states, several of the *aggregate* polls were skewed past the supposed margin of error.

OH. Polls: T+1, A: T+8.2 (7.2 bias to Biden)
WI. Polls: B+6.7, A: B+0.7 (6 bias to Biden)
MI. Polls: B+4.2, A: B+2.7 (1.5 bias to Biden)
NC. Polls: T+1, A: T+3.7 (2.7 bias to Biden)
TX. Polls: T+1.3, A: T+5.8 (4.5 bias to Biden)
PA. Polls: B+1.2, A: B:+0.65 (0.55 bias to Biden)
GA: Polls: T+1.0, A: B:+0.2 (1.2 bias to Trump)

In any event, Benford analysis and general shenanigans in Wayne County (Detroit), Philadelphia, and Atlanta - states where Trump had a commanding lead at 10 PM on Tuesday night, but magically generated enough votes out of those counties to flip the election.

This response tells me nothing about the The Guardian's aggregated polling data, just that ABCNews / Monmouth / several of the *aggregate* polls were not accurate.

Tarkan, you need to bow down before the accurate, methodologically sound and reliable Guardian aggregated polling data (leaving aside what you think about their political coverage).

[Alphabet]

Well, if the Ministry of Truth says so, guess we have to just accept it.

[Tarkan]

Biden's levels of absolute support in the swing states two weeks out are much higher than Hillary Clinton's were in the same timeframe.

Here's where Biden + Trump are now: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/19/us-election-polls-tracker-who-is-leading-in-the-swing-states

For some context, Biden is 6.8% up on where Hillary was in Arizona in 2016, 2.7% up in Florida, 4.9% up in Wisconsin. Similar leads in IA, MI, NC, NH, NV & PA.

It would take the biggest polling error in the modern history of US election polling errors (much bigger than in 2016 or even the biggest swing in history in 1948) to erase Biden's 10 or 11 point lead and hand Trump the win. Not saying it cannot happen, but 2020 is not 2016. The Economist even did a good analysis on the "shy Trump voter" and concluded that: "It would take a massive polling error—considerably larger than in 2016—for Mr Trump to pull off an upset victory again. Partisan non-response bias could account for some of the gap the president needs to make up, but nowhere near all of it." https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/10/11/the-race-for-the-white-house-is-a-little-closer-than-it-looks

So the polls were off again, but predictably so and no worse than they were in 2016. The difference this time was that Biden had such a significant lead in so many swing states that he could survive a 2-3 point polling error. Polls were right in that he will take Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, New Hampshire, Nevada, & Pennsylvania (pending Trump's attempts to disenfranchise for the win). Polls were wrong in predicting Iowa / Florida / North Carolina wins for Biden, but nothing outrageously outside the 2016 margin of error.

Glad we can now all agree that The Guardian's aggregated polling data was accurate, their methodology was sound, and that The Guardian is a reliable, unbiased source for aggregated polling data (leaving aside what we think about their political coverage)!

LOL. ABCNews / Monmouth had Wisconsin as +17 Biden.

In key battleground states, several of the *aggregate* polls were skewed past the supposed margin of error.

OH. Polls: T+1, A: T+8.2 (7.2 bias to Biden)
WI. Polls: B+6.7, A: B+0.7 (6 bias to Biden)
MI. Polls: B+4.2, A: B+2.7 (1.5 bias to Biden)
NC. Polls: T+1, A: T+3.7 (2.7 bias to Biden)
TX. Polls: T+1.3, A: T+5.8 (4.5 bias to Biden)
PA. Polls: B+1.2, A: B:+0.65 (0.55 bias to Biden)
GA: Polls: T+1.0, A: B:+0.2 (1.2 bias to Trump)

In any event, Benford analysis and general shenanigans in Wayne County (Detroit), Philadelphia, and Atlanta - states where Trump had a commanding lead at 10 PM on Tuesday night, but magically generated enough votes out of those counties to flip the election.

This response tells me nothing about the The Guardian's aggregated polling data, just that ABCNews / Monmouth / several of the *aggregate* polls were not accurate.

Tarkan, you need to bow down before the accurate, methodologically sound and reliable Guardian aggregated polling data (leaving aside what you think about their political coverage).

Are you high? Guardian's projections were even more off than the #s on RCP.

[el3so]

A sh!tload of people still voted for Trump though. Sad.

Doubt Biden will do the 8 years.

[Alphabet]

A sh!tload of people still voted for Trump though. Sad.

Doubt Biden will do the 8 years.

because

Wow...it's like people have their own thoughts and stuff.


Pedo Joe won't make it 6 months before the kinda black, kinda hindu kamel toe takes over. And when that happens, better watch out White boy.



Gonna be fun.

[ROB]

Yeah, it’ll be just like Obama’s rape camps.

[el3so]

Don't forget about the death panels...

[Alphabet]

Yeah, it’ll be just like Obama’s rape camps.

You'd have a point if Obongo had ever alluded to that. Which he didn't



Kamel toe? Absolutelty fucking hates Whites males and the West. She's said as much. Like the hijabi in Michigan. Really funny how third world bitches come to the West, run their mouths and say things they would not dare say in their shit hole country....isn't it?

[ROB]

Yeah, it’ll be just like Obama’s rape camps.

You'd have a point if Obongo had ever alluded to that. Which he didn't

Sure as shit didn't stop you tough guys wetting your pants in this place.

[Alphabet]

Yeah, it’ll be just like Obama’s rape camps.

You'd have a point if Obongo had ever alluded to that. Which he didn't

Sure as shit didn't stop you tough guys wetting your pants in this place.

Show my posts on this website to me saying that, and I'll eat crow


Fact is, all of us jumped on that moron, And you know that.

[ROB]

I know it’s tough to believe, but trawling through your posts on a Saturday evening isn’t that high on my agenda.