snaark wrote:Oh wow, another pseudo intellectual with a "the end is nigh" book. You don't see that every day.
Real intellectuals can have doom and gloom shit that doesn't come true either.
Check out Bertrand Russel's prediction of doom if Great Britain didn't leave NATO to join a confederation of neutral nations with Sweden, Finland, Austria and Switzerland. Basically it was "England Doesn't leave NATO = Ka-Blooey Mushroom clouds everywhere and humanity is wiped out."
Russel was certainly an intellectual. Reading his reflections on how things change when you think they will be permanent (Like the American Democratic processes currently under threat) but like everyone, he was focused on Britain and it's place in the world and thought that Britain was a key to survival of the human race.
He might have been right too, if circumstances were different, but they were as they were and humanity survived without Britain leaving NATO.
From the brief bit of Zeihan I have looked at it is pretty much USA is essential (like Russel thought of Britain) but that the USA is fine as long as we basically keep on track of not doing large infrastructure projects like Europe does (because of rivers, coasts and freight rail) and everyone is screwed because they are not the United States, Canada or Mexico.
Like I said, I just pretty much browsed his ideas so I do not have a grasp of them but I see Doomy Similarities to Bertrand Russell's post WWII ideas and certainly his nation-centric ideas about the world.
I guess the main thing is, lets say 50 years ago, who made predictions that have come true as far as dooming and glooming and what methods did they use? Someone who follows the pattern of past correct predictions would likely be correct themselves in the future.