Let's Talk Lego

[ROB]

Alphabet - you have mentioned a few times your investments in flipping Lego.

How does it work? How do you know what is going to sell? How do you buy at the right price?

I fucking love random business stories like this.

[Alphabet]

There's quick flips, and there's long term holds.

Ex: Black Panther (the movie) was hot shit for a minute, and the lego sets were commanding a premium at the time. I'd go into Target, Walmart, Barnes and Noble and buy entire racks. Decent flick, but it was a flash in a pan, and the sets have no long term staying power for investment. So, quick flip.

Ex: Take Harry Potter, anything Star Wars, or their City/Town creator sets, and sit on them for a few years. You'll make money. Keep them sealed, don't fuck with them, you're gold.

A lot of the mini figures that come with sets end up being worth more than the set itself. I've got sealed sets that have the old Batman and Joker figs, as well as sets with stormtroopers that people will pay bucks for.

There's also the overseas (non US sets) that go for big money here, as well as sets that are only sold at certain stores (like Target) that bring in bucks.

Easiest way to start out is get a Lego account. Look at what they are retiring soon, and buy. There's that algorithm, and another is looking at sets they run out of first production.

Ex: The Dune helicopter set is sold out right now, and on backorder. So, there will be another run soon, which will drop the price about $20-30. But you know, some people just need to be first, no matter the cost. So, I'm waiting for the second run to come out, and then it's marked for retirement next year, which will give me the retirement jump. If you're tracking...

[el3so]

LOL I bet you type "mint, in box condition" a lot. Makes sense: niche market, collectable. There are worse ways to earn a buck.

Sounds too much like real work to me though ;-)

[ROB]

This is brilliant.

What is liquidity like - as in how easy is it to sell a mint lego set (assume the longer term plays)?

[Alphabet]

This is brilliant.

What is liquidity like - as in how easy is it to sell a mint lego set (assume the longer term plays)?

Super easy. The people who buy what you'd hold on to for an investment have fuck you money. Call whatever economic situation we're in here in the US, recession or whatever...I've not noticed any appreciable change in my sales. These are guys with bank who are living out the childhood they wanted.

[Alphabet]

LOL I bet you type "mint, in box condition" a lot. Makes sense: niche market, collectable. There are worse ways to earn a buck.

Sounds too much like real work to me though ;-)

There are "those" guys out there. Like ANY fucking crease in the box, or nicked plastic cover, they won't buy.

Most of the buyers I deal with are big into building out an entire fucking basement diorama of their fave subject. I know a dude who probably has $100k Star Wars set up in his basement. He tells me that's nothing compared to others he's seen.

And I believe him.

[ROB]

Do you buy them straight from retailers or get them on the secondary market?

[Chimborazo]

Keep them sealed, don't fuck with them, you're gold.

This would be a major challenge for me. And insurmountable one.

[gnaruki]

https://www.aol.com/lego-bricks-smash-large-stocks-230857483.html *Didn't know AOL was still around

Here's the lego paper download https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3291456

Lego Bricks Beat Large Stocks and Gold as Investment Assets, Study Says
Fortune
KEVIN KELLEHER
Updated

Lego Bricks Beat Large Stocks and Gold as Investment Assets, Study Says
As painful as it is to step on a Lego brick while barefoot, throwing a set out could hurt even more. At least financially. The popular toys, which have inspired theme parks and a film franchise, may be a promising investment asset, according to a paper published by an economics professor at a Moscow university.

“We find that Lego investments outperform large stocks, bonds, gold and other alternative investments, yielding the average return of at least 11% (8% in real terms) in the sample period 1987-2015,” Victoria Dobrynskaya wrote in an April 2018 paper titled “LEGO—The Toy of Smart Investors.”

The report comes with a few caveats. There is a difference, both in scope and in dynamics, between the collectibles markets, where Lego sets are bought and sold (usually on eBay), and the financial markets, where stocks and gold are traded. One Lego set, a Star Wars Darth Revan set that retailed for $3.99 in 2014, was resold a year later for $28.46—an annual return of 613%. But even if one scored similar returns on dozens of Lego sets, it adds up to hundreds of dollars a year, not the tens of thousands most retirees need in retirement.

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And then there’s the risk that Lego-mania may have peaked. Collectibles are powered by fads: baseball cards and Beanie Babies aren’t as popular as they once were. Dobrynskaya’s paper said that Lego sets released in 2014 saw an average annual return of 82%, up from 5% in 2004. But more recently Lego has been struggling. The company cut about 1,400 jobs in 2017 as sales fell 8%, its first year of decline following 13 years of growth.

Some financial professionals expressed skepticism toward Dobrynskaya’s study.

“If you think about all the academics in the world, there are a lot of them, and all of them are looking for something interesting to say,” Roberto Croce, managing director, senior portfolio manager at BNY Mellon, told Bloomberg. “Someone is going to find something that is correlated. Purely by randomness that’s going to happen. I’d take it with a grain of salt.”

[Alphabet]

Do you buy them straight from retailers or get them on the secondary market?

I don't fuck with the secondary market. Too much work. This is a side hustle.

[Alphabet]

Keep them sealed, don't fuck with them, you're gold.

This would be a major challenge for me. And insurmountable one.

That's why you buy 3 sets. 2 to sell, and 1 to play with.

[Alphabet]

https://www.aol.com/lego-bricks-smash-large-stocks-230857483.html *Didn't know AOL was still around

Here's the lego paper download https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3291456

Lego Bricks Beat Large Stocks and Gold as Investment Assets, Study Says
Fortune
KEVIN KELLEHER
Updated

Lego Bricks Beat Large Stocks and Gold as Investment Assets, Study Says
As painful as it is to step on a Lego brick while barefoot, throwing a set out could hurt even more. At least financially. The popular toys, which have inspired theme parks and a film franchise, may be a promising investment asset, according to a paper published by an economics professor at a Moscow university.

“We find that Lego investments outperform large stocks, bonds, gold and other alternative investments, yielding the average return of at least 11% (8% in real terms) in the sample period 1987-2015,” Victoria Dobrynskaya wrote in an April 2018 paper titled “LEGO—The Toy of Smart Investors.”

The report comes with a few caveats. There is a difference, both in scope and in dynamics, between the collectibles markets, where Lego sets are bought and sold (usually on eBay), and the financial markets, where stocks and gold are traded. One Lego set, a Star Wars Darth Revan set that retailed for $3.99 in 2014, was resold a year later for $28.46—an annual return of 613%. But even if one scored similar returns on dozens of Lego sets, it adds up to hundreds of dollars a year, not the tens of thousands most retirees need in retirement.

Advertisement

And then there’s the risk that Lego-mania may have peaked. Collectibles are powered by fads: baseball cards and Beanie Babies aren’t as popular as they once were. Dobrynskaya’s paper said that Lego sets released in 2014 saw an average annual return of 82%, up from 5% in 2004. But more recently Lego has been struggling. The company cut about 1,400 jobs in 2017 as sales fell 8%, its first year of decline following 13 years of growth.

Some financial professionals expressed skepticism toward Dobrynskaya’s study.

“If you think about all the academics in the world, there are a lot of them, and all of them are looking for something interesting to say,” Roberto Croce, managing director, senior portfolio manager at BNY Mellon, told Bloomberg. “Someone is going to find something that is correlated. Purely by randomness that’s going to happen. I’d take it with a grain of salt.”

This article is wrong, and right.]


1)Right. No one is retiring off this. That's why it's a side hustle. It is fun. It contributes to my income. That's literally it.

2)Wrong as fuck. Comparing Legos to Beanie Babies is pants on pants on pants head retarded. Beanie Babies were a fad. Lego has a multi-generational following, and is riding on the coat tails of decades old movie franchises.

3)Wrong. Comparing a $3 set that went to $28, (and the author gives zero details outside of that which would be nice.) and let's say the Mandalorian Razor Crest set that went from $199 to $500-600 isn't a very good example.

4)Wrong. See #3. 2017 might have been a shitshow for Lego employees, but then comes The Mandalorian. Anything remotely Lego Mandalorian, and it's off shoot series, are still making money.


Got more to tear apart this article, but gimmie a day or two.

Danke.

[el3so]

That's why you buy 3 sets. 2 to sell, and 1 to play with.

Sounds like you are getting high on your own supply homey!

[Alphabet]

That's why you buy 3 sets. 2 to sell, and 1 to play with.

Sounds like you are getting high on your own supply homey!

No Sir. The 3rd set pays for itself.

A portion of, at this moment as of now, goes into growing my Browning Model 1910/1922 collection with all the funny French gibberish, USAmerican English, and German Waffenamt stamps all on one slide.

The other portion is going towards a niiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiice FN Rhodie, with the original dirty diaper paint. HNNNNNNNNNGGGGHHHHH...

[Chimborazo]

Keep them sealed, don't fuck with them, you're gold.

This would be a major challenge for me. And insurmountable one.

That's why you buy 3 sets. 2 to sell, and 1 to play with.

You think I'm some kind of thousandaire or something?