Egyptian Elections 2012

[svizzerams]

Cheers to Arctic!!! One radio report I heard today stated that in 5000 years of recorded history this is the first time in Egypt's history that the people have had a say over who will be their leader. And by all reports it has gone smoothly. Well done Egypt!

http://english.ahram.org.eg/News/42580.aspx

The first day of Egypt’s historic presidential elections appears to have passed without incident. Rising voter turnout throughout the day led Hatem Begato, secretary-general of the Supreme Presidential Electoral Commission (SPEC), to extend voting hours by one hour to 9pm to accommodate the increasing numbers.

Out of 13 official candidates, leading contenders belong to three principal ideological fronts. The principal secular candidates include Ahmed Shafiq, ousted president Hosni Mubarak's last prime minister, and Amr Moussa, a Mubarak-era foreign minister and former Arab League chief.

The two key Islamist candidates, meanwhile, are Abdel-Moneim Abul-Fotouh, a former Muslim Brotherhood leader and moderate Islamist, and Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohamed Mursi.

The increasingly popular Hamdeen Sabbahi, a Nasserist, represents the leftist front.

Egyptians have not participated in presidential elections since 2005, when Mubarak attained a whopping 87 per cent of the vote in polls widely perceived to have been rigged in his favour.

Turnout

Egypt’s first post-Mubarak parliamentary elections late last year saw high voter turnout, with more than 30 million Egyptians – 60 per cent of eligible voters – taking part. Those polls were swept by Islamist parties led by the Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party (FJP).

Voter participation on Wednesday was expected to be high, with observers predicting that between 30 and 40 million citizens – out of a total 53 million eligible voters – would take part.

"I predict that around 60 per cent of eligible voters will take part," Saad Eddin Ibrahim, prominent Egyptian human rights advocate, told Ahram Online. "That's a good amount even by democratic standards."

It appears that such predictions may not have been vindicated in all of Egypt's governorates, however, with voter numbers appearing considerably lower in some rural areas.

Some commentators have blamed hot weather – temperatures in Cairo reached 35 Celsius on Wednesday – while others blamed the long distances between polling stations, and the associated travel expenses, for the low numbers.

"I'm not voting. I'm from Assiut in Upper Egypt and can't afford to travel back to my hometown to vote," said one Cairo taxi driver. "The trip alone would cost LE400."

Some voters from the Siwa Oasis in Egypt's Western Desert, meanwhile, reportedly had to travel up to 12 kilometres to reach their designated polling stations.

Other would-be voters voluntarily chose not to cast ballots. Numerous residents of two villages in the Assiut governorate – Beni Idriss and Al-Manshaa Al-Soghra – boycotted the vote to protest months-long shortages of bread and butane gas.

Reported breaches & poll monitoring

Reports of electoral violations during Wednesday's polling, meanwhile, were minimal compared to elections held under the Mubarak regime. According to the media, breaches reported on Wednesday included vote buying in Tanta; limited scuffles outside various polling stations; names missing from Nasr City voter lists; and reported bullying in the northern city of Suez.

The SPEC, for its part, confirmed that it had "strictly" dealt with violations committed by certain presidential candidates and their supporters who defied a ban on last-minute campaigning outside polling stations.

"There were three incidents in which candidates and their supporters violated electoral rules," SPEC head Farouk Sultan stated at a press conference. "The commission has lodged complaints against them with the public prosecution."

Notably, Mursi, Shafiq and Abul-Fotouh have all given interviews recently in contravention of the ban on eleventh-hour campaigning.

Sultan also stated that several judges had pulled out of the monitoring process "for health reasons," denying earlier reports suggesting that they had been forcibly removed.

Rumours of other violations, especially the reported death of a police officer in Cairo's working-class Rod Al-Farag district, were put sleep after the SPEC's Bagato officially refuted them. Bagato clarified that a police officer had been killed on Tuesday in an incident unrelated to Wednesday's polling.

Egypt's ruling Supreme Coucnil of the Armed Forces (SCAF) carefully monitored the electoral process on Wednesday. According to state media, the SCAF's two top officials – Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi and Chief-of-Staff Sami Anan – followed the polling from defence ministry headquarters in Abbasiya.

"The SCAF is following procedures everywhere, making sure that all constituencies are secured and no violations occur of any kind," said SCAF member Mohamed El-Assar.

Voting trends

In terms of voting trends in Cairo and other governorates, observers say it is too early to predict final results, since many voters appear to be making their decisions at the very last minute.

"Opinion polls indicate that many voters have yet to make up their minds," Ibrahim said on the eve of the polls. "We are most likely in for a surprise."

"My relative changed his mind about who he would vote for while waiting on line to cast his ballot," said one local journalist.

Some media sources suggested that voters in certain middle- and upper-income Cairo districts – such as Zamalek and 6 October City - demonstrated a preference for the three secular candidates: Moussa, Shafiq and Sabbahi.

"I'm voting for Moussa, as he's the only candidate with the experience needed to restore Egypt’s economy," said Samir, a Zamalek resident.

"I was torn between Moussa and Sabahi, but finally decided on the latter, as he is our best option as a fresh face," said 6 October resident Said Mamdouh.

Working-class districts and Egypt's Coptic minority, meanwhile, appeared strongly inclined towards Sabbahi and Shafiq.

"Shafiq's a strongman; he can stand up to the politically-dominant Islamists," Magdi, a Copt from Cairo's Shubra district, told Ahram Online. "That’s why I'm voting for him."

Shafiq also appeared the candidate of choice in Cairo's Manshiyat Nasser district, another working-class area with a large Coptic-Christian constituency.

Sabbahi, too, however, seems to enjoy considerable support among Egypt's Coptic community.

"He's a man of the people who was part of the revolution," 24-year-old Michael Hanna, a Copt from the capital's low-income Mokattam district, said of the Nasserist candidate.

Outside of Cairo, voting trends were no less difficult to decipher. In Alexandria, Egypt's second city, popular districts saw high voter turnout compared to middle- and upper middle-class areas. Overall voting trends, however, appeared to vary sharply from district to district, making predictions all but impossible.

In the northern Sinai Peninsula, especially the city of Al-Arish, and in the Upper Egyptian governorate of Qena, Shafiq is reportedly leading the race.

"Shafiq seems to be dominating the vote so far in these places, especially among the predominantly Coptic-Christian residents," Al-Ahram correspondent Mahmoud Dessouki reported. He added, however, that elderly voters appeared to harbour a liking for Nasserist candidate Sabbahi, who they tend to associate with Egypt's golden age under late president Gamal Abdel Nasser.

In the Upper Egyptian Assiut governorate, home to some 2.8 million eligible voters, voter turnout was lower than for parliamentary elections. Nevertheless, observers there say the vote appears split between Shafiq and Mursi.

In southern Sinai, meanwhile, Moussa appears to be the candidate of choice. Observers attribute this to the fact that the ex-Arab League chief was the only candidate to hold a campaign rally in the remote governorate, which only contains some 63,000 eligible voters.

According to judges in the Upper Egyptian governorate of Sohag, voter turnout on the first day of elections was low. They added, however, that, based on their own observations, Shafiq and Moussa appeared to be the most popular candidates there.

Ultimately, analysts and observers agree, it is impossible to make any concrete predictions after only one day of voting. The second and final day of polling is likely to bring with it new surprises, they note, pointing out that, since Thursday has been declared a national holiday, voters were likely to turn out in much greater numbers.

[Sri Lanky]

2 Questions:

1) One can't help but note the paucity of female candidates. Were there any?

2) How will it affect Israel?

[Arctic]

Sri Lanky wrote:

2 Questions:

1) One can't help but note the paucity of female candidates. Were there any?

2) How will it affect Israel?

1) Yeah, that's not gonna happen for years and years. No prohibition, of course, but this is a traditionally patriarchal society. There was a woman candidate, but I think she pulled out fairly early on in the process. Think a black man running for president in the US 40 or 50 years ago. Or a Muslim running for president in the US now (Obama heritage jokes aside, of course).

2) I like to think they're kinda low on our list of priorities right now, but in the long run, the assumption is things will change. Israel can no longer bank on a benign, indulgent despot keeping his people in line because he doesn't need votes or support to stay in office. If you mean war, there's no appetite for it. But there will be added pressure on the Israelis to reach some sort of negotiated settlement with the Palestinians. The blockade on Gaza will likely be further lessened on the Egyptian side. It's already affected Israel in one very direct fashion: the natural gas export arrangement has been terminated due to repeated attacks on the pipeline. That has serious repercussions for Israel, energy-wise.

But of course, that's assuming the president has real power, and manages to extricate the military carefully from the political scene, because the fat cat generals don't like to rock the boat.

[Detroit_Pierogi]

Arctic,

What are the expectations for what will happen after the election results are tallied ?

[Arctic]

Detroit_Pierogi wrote:

Arctic,

What are the expectations for what will happen after the election results are tallied ?

Depends on the outcome. It's safe to assume there will be no outright winners in the first round--too many candidates, with a handful of strong contenders. The polls have been all over the place, but I'm getting the impression the Brotherhood's Morsy is leading by a slight margin (he won the expat vote) by about 8 percentage points, but that's a small fraction of the electorate.

So Morsy vs. someone in the run-off. It's still unclear whether that will be ex-Brotherhood man Abul Futuh (which should be fascinating to watch), or someone from the ancien regime (either Mubarak's former foreign minister Moussa or Mubarak's former vice president Shafiq). Suspect Moussa is more likely.

If Morsy vs. Aboul Futuh, it's currently too close to call. It would be a bitter and acrimonious fight, and there'd be some strategic voting there by desperate liberals and Christians who would vote for Aboul Futuh because he's a softer Islamist. Aboul Futuh might be able to pull it off.

Morsy vs. Moussa/Shafiq on the other hand... that would be Revolution vs. Anti-Revolution for the most part. Likely Morsy would win that, because even the softer Islamists and the Salafis would back him against anyone from the ancien regime, as would a lot of pro-Revolution types.

Realistically speaking, I think that if anyone from the ancien regime wins, even if in a fair election, there will immediately be claims of rigging, and protests in the streets that would likely turn violent. The ancien regime politicians are campaigning on a stability-and-order platform, and if empowered by a significant margin, they will likely feel justified to crackdown mercilessly on unauthorized street protests. If that happens, there will probably be a considerable amount of unity from the pro-revolution political elite, potentially triggering a destructive cycle of protests/crackdowns.

I don't see that happening though, because I don't think the old guard will win.

Now, bear in mind, this is completely without precedent and the polls suck, so there's a lot of guesstimation going on here. It should clear up somewhat once we get the results of the first round. Polls close in about 90 minutes, but we won't get results for a few days, depending on turnout. Word is turnout isn't so hot... I expect that to change in the second round though.

[Duende]

One of the most informative, boots on the ground posts I've seen around here in awhile.

Cheers Arctic.

[Weez]

I agree. Is the military playing nice, so far? Are they officially or unofficially endorsing/intervening?


Also, I'm new. I've been reading this board for a while, I've just never signed up. Hi.

[Detroit_Pierogi]

One of the most informative, boots on the ground posts I've seen around here in awhile.

Cheers Arctic.

I agree.

Awesome.

Thanks, Arctic.

[Detroit_Pierogi]

I agree. Is the military playing nice, so far? Are they officially or unofficially endorsing/intervening?


Also, I'm new. I've been reading this board for a while, I've just never signed up. Hi.

Hi Weez.

[Arctic]

Weez wrote:

I agree. Is the military playing nice, so far? Are they officially or unofficially endorsing/intervening?

Also, I'm new. I've been reading this board for a while, I've just never signed up. Hi.

Hi Weez!

The military is under an immense amount of scrutiny, and they've pretty much squandered any political capital they gained by throwing in with the revolution through their inept and brutal handling of the past 15 months. The impression is, they clearly want out of the spotlight ASAP, but will fight to protect their vested interests, and are apparently hoping they can continue to pull the strings behind the scenes when this is over and done with.

The assumption is they're rooting for the old guard, but can't afford to do so blatantly and risk a confrontation with the various other political forces. Soldiers and police don't get to vote. There's a heightened awareness and defensiveness on the part of the citizenry, so there's not a whole lot the military council can do to rig this process--so far anyway.

The commission in charge of the elections is fairly suspect in its composition and loyalties, but parliament amended some of the laws to allow for greater transparency of the process. And again, the candidates have reps in most polling stations and are following the counting and tallying, so it will be hard to systematically screw with the vote in any meaningful way.

The army's getting pretty antsy about the prospect of a new constitution and a new president. Too many unknowns, and most of the candidates have to at least suggest they plan to hold the military to account for any crimes committed.

So I can't help but get the impression the whole process has been unfolding outside of the army's comfort zone. My assumption is they've got a few cards up their sleeve, but are focused on trying to figure out how best to cut their losses.

[Detroit_Pierogi]

Really great stuff, Arctic.

Keep it coming !

[el3so]

Always insightful.

[svizzerams]

Thanks for posting your on-scene perspectives as the events unfold.

[Arctic]

... and it's looking like the runoff will pit the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohamed Morsy against Mubarak's prime minister Ahmed Shafiq.

These are unofficial tallies, but the figures seem pretty solid. Still no formal announcement though.

Morsy is leading, with almost 5 million votes in total. Bear in mind, ladies and gents, he entered the race about 6 weeks ago. The Brotherhood machine is formidable.

Assumption is most of the other pro-revolution candidates and groups will now throw their weight behind Morsy, but we'll see.

The contest now will be pitched as pro- or anti-revolution.

[kilroy]

so which horse are you voting for, arctic?

any signs of people trying to keep voters from the polls? i know you say the military is under a lot of scrutiny, but are there any partisan groups out to intimidate folks who aren't supporters of their candidate?