Moderator: coldharvest
Kurt wrote:The Polls say the Polls are different this time.
Ozymandias wrote:Biden's levels of absolute support in the swing states two weeks out are much higher than Hillary Clinton's were in the same timeframe.
Here's where Biden + Trump are now: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/19/us-election-polls-tracker-who-is-leading-in-the-swing-states
For some context, Biden is 6.8% up on where Hillary was in Arizona in 2016, 2.7% up in Florida, 4.9% up in Wisconsin. Similar leads in IA, MI, NC, NH, NV & PA.
It would take the biggest polling error in the modern history of US election polling errors (much bigger than in 2016 or even the biggest swing in history in 1948) to erase Biden's 10 or 11 point lead and hand Trump the win. Not saying it cannot happen, but 2020 is not 2016. The Economist even did a good analysis on the "shy Trump voter" and concluded that: "It would take a massive polling error—considerably larger than in 2016—for Mr Trump to pull off an upset victory again. Partisan non-response bias could account for some of the gap the president needs to make up, but nowhere near all of it." https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/10/11/the-race-for-the-white-house-is-a-little-closer-than-it-looks
Tarkan wrote:He’s corrupt as hell - which should be pretty obvious. He’s old and dementia addled. He likes molesting girls on camera and is apparently a little rapey with other women as well, his surviving son is a train wreck of epic proportions, a blackmail case waiting to happen and a fastball away from overdosing...and this is what the Democrats offer America.
Tarkan wrote:Ozymandias wrote:Biden's levels of absolute support in the swing states two weeks out are much higher than Hillary Clinton's were in the same timeframe.
Here's where Biden + Trump are now: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/19/us-election-polls-tracker-who-is-leading-in-the-swing-states
For some context, Biden is 6.8% up on where Hillary was in Arizona in 2016, 2.7% up in Florida, 4.9% up in Wisconsin. Similar leads in IA, MI, NC, NH, NV & PA.
It would take the biggest polling error in the modern history of US election polling errors (much bigger than in 2016 or even the biggest swing in history in 1948) to erase Biden's 10 or 11 point lead and hand Trump the win. Not saying it cannot happen, but 2020 is not 2016. The Economist even did a good analysis on the "shy Trump voter" and concluded that: "It would take a massive polling error—considerably larger than in 2016—for Mr Trump to pull off an upset victory again. Partisan non-response bias could account for some of the gap the president needs to make up, but nowhere near all of it." https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/10/11/the-race-for-the-white-house-is-a-little-closer-than-it-looks
Ozy...the Guardian isn’t exactly a reliable source.
Some counters:
https://mobile.twitter.com/MDProgressiv ... wsrc%5Etfw
Michigan early voting returns show Biden and Trump neck and neck. Early voting favors Dems
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbsnew ... arrow-gap/
GOP had narrowed voter registration gap in battleground states. In several states the GOP registered 2x as many new voters as Dems did. New voter registrations are highly correlated with electoral success.
Not sayinf Trump is going to win - but the polls are off. Its going to be much closer than the polls suggest.
And oh, if Biden wins and the Democrats sweep, the market is going go shit the bed.
BFC used to get spammed with copy-pasted Grauniad articles.Ozymandias wrote: Lots to discuss here, but want to focus on one statement: "The Guardian isn’t exactly a reliable source". Why not? Please provide some evidence to support this claim.
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