Biden’s Chances Compared to Hillary’s

[Kurt]

American actors are shit (with some exceptions of course). The Brits are getting a decent payday for being able to do accents. American writers are better since we have avoided "lets do a small town with lots of murders and make it a whole series!"

Dunno if it is true for the Brits but I head that Brit writers "inherit" their job basically because someone they know is high up in the BBC or ITV and gets them work where as American writers work for it.

Where as American actors are shit because most of them get into because they are born into it these days, where the Brits gotta work for it.

Not sure if it is true but hell, I will believe it anyway because I do not care if I am wrong.

[Tarkan]

The Guardian article is pretty clear on their methodology: "Each day, the Guardian’s poll tracker takes a rolling 14-day average of the polls in ​eight swing states." So are all the underlying polls not exactly a reliable source? Or is the methodology in how the Guardian are interpreting these underlying polls problematic? It seems that you agree with the Guardian's interpretation that "We must caution that the polls – particularly some swing state polls – severely under counted Trump supporters in 2016. We are not certain, despite assurances, that they they have corrected this​. Additionally, they may be over-counting Democratic support (more people may say they will vote for Biden than actually turn out). We present the latest polls with those caveats to be borne in mind."

A couple of comments.

1. Guardian is strongly left leaning, and the left has a very strong echo chamber, which tends to generate confirmation bias - and this is something that has been consistent for decades (cue the shock of leftists saying "I don't know how Nixon won, not a single person I know voted for him!").
2. Averaging the polls, in normal election years, with normal candidates, tends to produce fairly accurate results. In 2016, however, it skewed/under counted Trump voters by 3-4% in the polls in battleground states right before the election (when, presumably, the polls should have been the most accurate). The same exact thing is happening in 2020.

The polls in 2016 basically made the mistake of assuming the voter turnout for Obama in 2008 and (to a lesser extent) 2012 indicated a permanent shift in the electorate. They seem to be over counting Democrats yet once again, particularly in terms of likely voters. Barrack Obama was very likable and very good at getting voters out to vote for him. Hillary was not, and neither is Biden. Biden is running an even more anemic campaign than Hillary did - and that's saying something.

Does that mean Trump is going to win? No, of course not, but prognostications of a Democratic tidal wave for 2020 are probably at best, highly delusional and wishful thinking not backed up by legit behind the scenes numbers.

In terms of exit polling for early returns, the only state that appears to be breaking the way Democrats need it to is Ohio (where Dems apparently have a 2-1 early vote return advantage). In MI and PA, it's neck and neck, and that's bad for Democrats since the GOP tends to turn out heavy on actual election day.

[denise]

Same so ugly.

[Ozymandias]

Lots of excitement at the moment about the potential for Texas to turn into a blue state for first time since 1976, given the early voter turnout, and how close it's been in the polls recently. Losing Texas would be a disaster for Trump's reelection chances.

I'm not sure all this early turnout is necessarily a guaranteed good thing for Biden, although the Trump team's efforts to obstruct the postal vote implies they think it is...

We're seeing very high rates (above 24% in PA, MI, WI, FL, TX, AZ, NC, GA) of new voters who did not vote in 2016 turning out for early voting in this election. This, combined with a likely new record in terms of overall turnout, is probably bad news for voter modeling. Also, mail-in ballots are being rejected at very low rates.

Exciting times!

[Alphabet]

Lots of excitement at the moment about the potential for Texas to turn into a blue state for first time since 1976, given the early voter turnout, and how close it's been in the polls recently. Losing Texas would be a disaster for Trump's reelection chances.

I'm not sure all this early turnout is necessarily a guaranteed good thing for Biden, although the Trump team's efforts to obstruct the postal vote implies they think it is...

We're seeing very high rates (above 24% in PA, MI, WI, FL, TX, AZ, NC, GA) of new voters who did not vote in 2016 turning out for early voting in this election. This, combined with a likely new record in terms of overall turnout, is probably bad news for voter modeling. Also, mail-in ballots are being rejected at very low rates.

Exciting times!

Not to belittle you, at all, seriously, but Texas could go blue for the next 4 gabillion years, and it won't make a difference. Watch PA and Ohio. I can't be fucked to care one way or another about who wins, because it won't really change anything.

Just throwing you a semi-educated bone.

[Tarkan]

Lots of excitement at the moment about the potential for Texas to turn into a blue state for first time since 1976, given the early voter turnout, and how close it's been in the polls recently. Losing Texas would be a disaster for Trump's reelection chances.

I'm not sure all this early turnout is necessarily a guaranteed good thing for Biden, although the Trump team's efforts to obstruct the postal vote implies they think it is...

We're seeing very high rates (above 24% in PA, MI, WI, FL, TX, AZ, NC, GA) of new voters who did not vote in 2016 turning out for early voting in this election. This, combined with a likely new record in terms of overall turnout, is probably bad news for voter modeling. Also, mail-in ballots are being rejected at very low rates.

Exciting times!

LOL. Half of the new voters in Texas are whites without a college education. A group that is going to break very, very strongly for Trump. Trump is also going to do better among the Latino population than in 2016. Trump will take Texas by a 7% to 13% margin. It won't be close. Biden has already lost FL btw.

[Kurt]

Personally I think two surprises will happen.

Texas will go Biden

Pennsylvania will go Trump.

My logic, possibly faulty as I am arm-chair to the core with this shit, is that traditionally Texas has undercounted blacks and their opinion and that in Pennsylvania they have undercounted whites, especially rural whites, and their opinions.

I voted yesterday. I was in line for about 40 minutes with blacks and a few liberal whites so it was quite decent. We got snacks and pizza from Socialist Chef Jose Andres and Capitalist Debt lovers Uber Eats.

[ROB]

Certainty is indicative of stupidity.

[Kurt]

Certainty is indicative of stupidity.

Or actually knowing stuff...but for the most part you are correct.

My political predictions are mostly stupid though.

I predicted Obama when he entered the race at a dinner table in the UK and was told that the US was too racist to elect a black man (this was at a Conservative dinner table). I was told he would never be nominated even, but if he was he would lose.

A few days before the 2016 election I predicted Trump (I had guessed Hillary before that) when I was in an elevator at 300 Cadman plaza to get my allergy shots and Clinton campaign workers were in the elevator with me with their pull-luggage complaining about the "Hicks" in Wisconsin.

Hillary never even showed up there herself so she had a bunch of 20-somethings from the East Coast Colleges go to let plump women hug them instead and they hated it. When I saw their contempt for the electorate there I figured they had contempt for voters everywhere outside of NY, NJ, Connecticut and California.

My duds were predicting that Ron Paul would get the nomination in 2008. Man, that was dumb.

In College I predicted that the Reagan Legacy would end in 2004 after Dan Quayle's second term.

I also predicted there would only be one political party and differences in foreign and domestic policy would be represented by competing "Think Tanks" ( I was wrong but I think it was a decent guess in some ways)

[Dabbi]

I think all the failed predictions here need to be printed out and eaten by the people that make them after they prove wrong

[Kurt]

I think all the failed predictions here need to be printed out and eaten by the people that make them after they prove wrong

What? Admit our mistakes or contradictions?

That's Nordic talk!

[Tarkan]

Certainty is indicative of stupidity.

Or actually knowing stuff...but for the most part you are correct.

My political predictions are mostly stupid though.

I predicted Obama when he entered the race at a dinner table in the UK and was told that the US was too racist to elect a black man (this was at a Conservative dinner table). I was told he would never be nominated even, but if he was he would lose.

Some of you guys might recall that I called out Obama after the 2004 Democratic Convention that he was being groomed to run (incidentally, holy shit some of us have been here a long time). Now I didn't think he would win, because like Kurt's people, I thought the US was still too racist to elect a black man.

I also predicted there would only be one political party and differences in foreign and domestic policy would be represented by competing "Think Tanks" ( I was wrong but I think it was a decent guess in some ways)

This prediction isn't all that far off. The establishment wings of the two parties are pretty much interchangeable aside from rhetoric. There's not a whole lot of separation between Romney (supported an assault weapons ban in MA as well as created the blueprint that was used for Obamacare) and Obama/Hillary/Biden/Pelosi (incidentally, Romney/Biden/Pelosi all have kids doing work for Ukranian oil companies. Weird that). Both establishments seem to be in favor of ForeverWar, shipping engineering and manufacturing jobs to China and India, and displacing native blue collar workers with immigrants (legal and illegal) from Central and South America. In short, the establishment elite have split themselves off from the greater American society and are pursuing policies that are in their best interests, but not really in the best interests of the rest of the country.

Obama won because he had a superb ground game and GOTV operation, was a fund raising machine, motivated blacks to turn out in record numbers, and he faced two candidates that Republicans didn't really like. Very few people in the GOP liked McCain as their first or second pick to be President, his campaign went broke during the primaries and never really dug himself out of the funding hole - his advantage was there were several conservative people that season that split up the conservative vote, leaving McCain to sweep up the moderate GOP vote. Romney was more or less the same scenario. So, Obama faced off against two guys who didn't generate a whole lot of enthusiasm in the base, and Romney furthermore pissed off the libertarian wing when he snubbed Ron Paul.

Those two elections generated a lot of bad blood for the "GOPe" who told the rank and file to shut up and vote Republican.

Those same GOPe people that pushed party over principle turned into NeverTrumpers when ¡Jeb! was rejected by the primary voters. It'll be interesting to see if that red diaper baby Bill Kristol tries to worm his way back in the Republican party after the Trump era ends - after trying to get people to vote for Hillary and Biden. The Trump primary selection was a big fuck you to the GOPe, and his election win was likewise a big fuck you to both parties.

[Ozymandias]

I think all the failed predictions here need to be printed out and eaten by the people that make them after they prove wrong

This sounds like a great idea. Nom.

[SRR]

I'm still holding out hope for a surprise Kanye victory.

Make these elections fun again.

[seektravelinfo]

[quote="SRR"]I'm still holding out hope for a surprise Kanye victory.

Make these elections fun again.[/quote]

Thankfully, he did not make it onto the ballot in my state. Too many irregularities with his petitions.